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"provider": "WHO", "seriesId": "covid_deaths", "sourceName": "WHO COVID-19 dashboard statistical release", "url": "https://srhdpeuwpubsa.blob.core.windows.net/whdh/COVID/WHO-COVID-19-global-data.csv", "firstObservation": "2020-01-31", "latestObservation": "2026-08-31", "observations": 80, "transform": "log1p", "block": "pandemic", "fetchMode": "snapshot" } ], "events": [ { "announcementDate": "2017-05-09", "effectiveDate": "2017-05-09", "endDate": null, "status": "historical", "eventType": "presidential_election", "direction": "neutral", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 1, "label": "제19대 대통령선거", "sourceUrl": "https://shipvote.nec.go.kr/site/nec/ex/bbs/View.do?bcIdx=9266&cbIdx=1104", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "선거월 사건" }, { "announcementDate": "2017-06-19", "effectiveDate": "2017-06-19", "endDate": null, "status": "historical", "eventType": "housing_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 3, "label": "주택시장의 안정적 관리를 위한 선별적·맞춤형 대응방안", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95079312&lcmspage=1", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "과거 정책은 시행 종료시점의 일관된 공식 코딩이 없어 발표 충격으로만 처리" }, { "announcementDate": "2017-08-02", "effectiveDate": "2017-08-02", "endDate": null, "status": "historical", "eventType": "housing_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 3, "label": "실수요 보호와 단기 투기수요 억제를 통한 주택시장 안정화 방안", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95079498&lcmspage=1", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "과거 정책은 발표 충격으로 처리" }, { "announcementDate": "2020-03-11", "effectiveDate": "2020-03-11", "endDate": "2023-05-05", "status": "historical", "eventType": "pandemic", "direction": "shock", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "WHO COVID-19 팬데믹 국면", "sourceUrl": "https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "WHO 국제적 공중보건 비상사태 종료일까지 국면 더미" }, { "announcementDate": "2020-06-17", "effectiveDate": "2020-06-17", "endDate": null, "status": "historical", "eventType": "housing_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 3, "label": "주택시장 안정을 위한 관리방안", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95084016", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "과거 정책은 발표 충격으로 처리" }, { "announcementDate": "2022-03-09", "effectiveDate": "2022-03-09", "endDate": null, "status": "historical", "eventType": "presidential_election", "direction": "neutral", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 1, "label": "제20대 대통령선거", "sourceUrl": "https://museum.nec.go.kr/museum2018/search/7/1/1/search_view.do?I_REGNO=PE-20-00369", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "선거월 사건" }, { "announcementDate": "2022-06-21", "effectiveDate": "2022-06-21", "endDate": null, "status": "historical", "eventType": "housing_policy", "direction": "easing", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 3, "label": "임대차 시장 안정 방안 및 3분기 추진 정상화 과제", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95086857&lcmspage=1", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "발표 충격으로 처리" }, { "announcementDate": "2025-03-19", "effectiveDate": "2025-03-19", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "housing_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "seoul", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 3, "label": "강남3구·용산구 토지거래허가구역 확대 등 주택시장 안정화 방안", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95090779", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.344596, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 0.508075 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "서울 대상 발표 충격으로 처리; 토지거래허가·시장점검 조치의 서로 다른 시행기간을 하나의 지속 제도로 가정하지 않음" }, { "announcementDate": "2025-05-20", "effectiveDate": "2025-07-01", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "credit_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "3단계 스트레스 DSR 시행방안", "sourceUrl": "https://www.fsc.go.kr/no010101/84617", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "2025년 7월 1일부터 시행" }, { "announcementDate": "2025-06-03", "effectiveDate": "2025-06-03", "endDate": null, "status": "historical", "eventType": "presidential_election", "direction": "neutral", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 1, "label": "제21대 대통령선거", "sourceUrl": "https://www.nec.go.kr/site/nec/ex/bbs/View.do?bcIdx=269362&cbIdx=1104", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "선거월 사건" }, { "announcementDate": "2025-06-27", "effectiveDate": "2025-06-28", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "credit_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "capital_region", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "수도권 중심 가계부채 관리 강화 방안", "sourceUrl": "https://www.fsc.go.kr/no010101/84824", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.683979, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "주담대 6억원 한도·전입의무 등 수도권 중심 조치" }, { "announcementDate": "2025-09-07", "effectiveDate": "2025-09-08", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "credit_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "capital_region", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "규제지역 LTV 40% 및 수도권 주택매매·임대사업자 주담대 제한", "sourceUrl": "https://www.fsc.go.kr/no010101/85253", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.692331, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "수도권·규제지역 대상" }, { "announcementDate": "2025-09-07", "effectiveDate": "2025-09-07", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "supply_policy", "direction": "easing", "geography": "capital_region", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 6, "label": "새정부 주택공급 확대방안", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95091185", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.692331, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "공급정책은 효과 시점이 분산되므로 발표 후 6개월 펄스로 처리" }, { "announcementDate": "2025-10-15", "effectiveDate": "2025-10-16", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "housing_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "capital_region", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "주택시장 안정화 대책", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95091308", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.694236, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "서울 전역·경기 12개 지역 규제 확대와 주담대 한도 강화" }, { "announcementDate": "2025-12-30", "effectiveDate": "2026-01-01", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "credit_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "은행권 주택담보대출 위험가중치 하한 15%→20% 상향", "sourceUrl": "https://www.fsc.go.kr/no010101/85970", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "2026년 1월 1일부터 시행; 은행권 주택담보대출의 자본부담을 높이는 제도 변화" }, { "announcementDate": "2026-01-29", "effectiveDate": "2026-01-29", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "supply_policy", "direction": "easing", "geography": "capital_region", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 6, "label": "도심 내 우수입지 활용 6만호 신속 공급 방안", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95091650", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.704058, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "9·7 공급대책 후속의 신규 공급방안; 실제 준공시점을 가정하지 않고 발표 충격 6개월만 반영" }, { "announcementDate": "2026-02-12", "effectiveDate": "2026-05-10", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "tax_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "regulated_area", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "다주택자 양도소득세 중과 유예 종료 및 보완", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95091708", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.710993, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "공식 발표상 2026년 5월 9일 계약분까지 유예 보완; 5월 10일부터 중과 재개로 코딩" }, { "announcementDate": "2026-04-01", "effectiveDate": "2026-04-17", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "credit_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "capital_region", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "다주택자·임대사업자 수도권·규제지역 아파트 주담대 만기연장 제한", "sourceUrl": "https://www.fsc.go.kr/no010101/86606", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.709386, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "2026년 4월 17일부터 원칙적 만기연장 불허; 불가피한 예외는 존재" }, { "announcementDate": "2026-04-01", "effectiveDate": "2026-04-01", "endDate": "2026-12-31", "status": "effective", "eventType": "macroprudential_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "2026년도 가계부채 관리방안", "sourceUrl": "https://www.fsc.go.kr/no010101/86606", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 1.0, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "관리대상 가계대출 증가율 목표와 대출규제 위반 점검 강화 등 2026년 거시건전성 기조" }, { "announcementDate": "2026-04-09", "effectiveDate": "2026-04-09", "endDate": "2026-05-09", "status": "ended", "eventType": "tax_policy", "direction": "easing", "geography": "regulated_area", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "다주택자 양도소득세 중과 유예 종료 적용 추가 보완", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95091884", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.709386, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "5월 9일 기한은 유지하되 토지거래허가 신청분까지 한시적으로 중과 배제 적용" }, { "announcementDate": "2026-05-12", "effectiveDate": "2026-05-12", "endDate": "2026-12-31", "status": "effective", "eventType": "housing_policy", "direction": "easing", "geography": "seoul", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "세입자 있는 토지거래허가구역 주택의 실거주 유예 확대", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95091995", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.381686, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 0.536836 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "서울 토지거래허가구역 관련 한시적 완화; 2026년 12월 31일 신청분까지" }, { "announcementDate": "2026-05-22", "effectiveDate": "2026-05-22", "endDate": "2027-12-31", "status": "effective", "eventType": "supply_policy", "direction": "easing", "geography": "capital_region", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 6, "label": "수도권 규제지역 매입임대 6.6만호 공급", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95092034", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.710993, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "비아파트 공급 지원 발표" }, { "announcementDate": "2026-05-26", "effectiveDate": "2026-05-26", "endDate": "2030-12-31", "status": "effective", "eventType": "supply_policy", "direction": "easing", "geography": "capital_region", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 6, "label": "비아파트 공급 확대 및 수도권 아파트 10만호 조기착공 지원", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95092046", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "seoul", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.710993, "seoul": 1.0, "capital_region": 1.0 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "공급계획 발표 효과만 6개월 펄스로 처리" }, { "announcementDate": "2026-06-30", "effectiveDate": "2026-07-01", "endDate": null, "status": "effective", "eventType": "credit_policy", "direction": "tightening", "geography": "gyeonggi_targeted", "effectMode": "regime", "windowMonths": null, "label": "동탄구·기흥구·구리시 규제지역 추가 지정에 따른 대출규제", "sourceUrl": "https://www.fsc.go.kr/no010101/87222", "configuredForModel": true, "modelRegions": [ "nationwide", "capital_region" ], "modelWeights": { "nationwide": 0.286427, "capital_region": 0.399423 }, "includedInModel": true, "notes": "수도권 분석에는 포함하고 서울 분석에는 제외" }, { "announcementDate": "2026-07-14", "effectiveDate": null, "endDate": null, "status": "consultation", "eventType": "housing_policy", "direction": "neutral", "geography": "national", "effectMode": "pulse", "windowMonths": 1, "label": "부동산정책 공급·금융·세제 국민 의견수렴", "sourceUrl": "https://www.molit.go.kr/USR/NEWS/m_71/dtl.jsp?id=95092224", "configuredForModel": false, "modelRegions": [], "modelWeights": {}, "includedInModel": false, "notes": "확정·시행 정책이 아니므로 차트 주석만 표시" } ], "administrationAttribution": { "enabled": true, "method": { "classification": "supported / partially-supported / not-supported / indeterminate / premise-not-met", "inheritedMomentum": "AR(2) recursive forecast fitted only on the 60 months before inauguration", "macroCounterfactual": "pre-inauguration AR(2)+domestic/global macro-PC model; standardisation and PCA loadings are fitted only on the pre-inauguration window and held fixed on the observed post-inauguration macro path", "policyEvidence": "predecessor carryover and incumbent policies are separated by effective/announcement date and geographic scope; policy timing is diagnostic rather than a causal coefficient decomposition", "predictionInterval": "approximate 80% cumulative interval based on pre-inauguration residual volatility", "warning": "This is an ex-post diagnostic, not a causal allocation of legal or political responsibility. Revised macro series and limited administrations can affect results." }, "terms": [ { "id": "roh_moo_hyun", "label": "노무현 정부", "president": "노무현", "startDate": "2003-02-25", "endDate": "2008-02-24", "predecessorId": null, "kind": "elected", "sourceUrl": "https://www.pa.go.kr/online_contents/inauguration/president16.jsp", "notes": "지역 월별 표본 시작 이전에 취임하여 임기초 귀속분석은 표본 부족으로 제외될 수 있음" }, { "id": "lee_myung_bak", "label": "이명박 정부", "president": "이명박", "startDate": "2008-02-25", "endDate": "2013-02-24", "predecessorId": "roh_moo_hyun", "kind": "elected", "sourceUrl": "https://pa.go.kr/online_contents/inauguration/president17.jsp", "notes": "공식 취임일 기준" }, { "id": "park_geun_hye", "label": "박근혜 정부", "president": "박근혜", "startDate": "2013-02-25", "endDate": "2017-03-10", "predecessorId": "lee_myung_bak", "kind": "elected", "sourceUrl": "https://www.pa.go.kr/online_contents/inauguration/president18.jsp", "notes": "임기 종료일은 파면 선고일 기준" }, { "id": "moon_jae_in", "label": "문재인 정부", "president": "문재인", "startDate": "2017-05-10", "endDate": "2022-05-09", "predecessorId": "park_geun_hye", "kind": "elected", "sourceUrl": "https://www.pa.go.kr/online_contents/inauguration/president19.jsp", "notes": "보궐선거 후 취임일 기준" }, { "id": "yoon_suk_yeol", "label": "윤석열 정부", "president": "윤석열", "startDate": "2022-05-10", "endDate": "2025-04-04", "predecessorId": "moon_jae_in", "kind": "elected", "sourceUrl": "https://webarchives.pa.go.kr/20th/20insu.go.kr/inews/30", "notes": "임기 종료일은 파면 선고일 기준" }, { "id": "lee_jae_myung", "label": "이재명 정부", "president": "이재명", "startDate": "2025-06-04", "endDate": null, "predecessorId": "yoon_suk_yeol", "kind": "elected", "sourceUrl": "https://www.president.go.kr/videos/cmEzXOZ1", "notes": "제21대 대통령 취임일 기준; 현재 표본에서 일부 임기초 구간만 관측" } ], "results": [ { "termId": "roh_moo_hyun", "regionId": "nationwide", "horizonMonths": 6, "observedMonths": 6, "partialHorizon": false, "sampleStart": "2003-03-31", "sampleEnd": "2003-08-31", "actualChangePercent": 4.318843074122625, 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0.23064980008366529, "macroCounterfactual": 0.1549252533682001 }, { "date": "2003-04-30", "actual": 1.1825416992822815, "inheritedMomentum": 0.4841999303707707, "macroCounterfactual": 0.39989489222292796 }, { "date": "2003-05-31", "actual": 2.146564941702722, "inheritedMomentum": 0.7584462346801876, "macroCounterfactual": 0.7031546653256537 }, { "date": "2003-06-30", "actual": 3.1427223084285236, "inheritedMomentum": 1.0514158689246278, "macroCounterfactual": 1.135320828773006 }, { "date": "2003-07-31", "actual": 3.7503846850149776, "inheritedMomentum": 1.361350637317648, "macroCounterfactual": 1.6126956840153281 }, { "date": "2003-08-31", "actual": 4.318843074122632, "inheritedMomentum": 1.6866825572109219, "macroCounterfactual": 2.091908974575697 } ] }, { "termId": "roh_moo_hyun", "regionId": "nationwide", "horizonMonths": 12, "observedMonths": 12, "partialHorizon": false, "sampleStart": "2003-03-31", "sampleEnd": "2004-02-29", "actualChangePercent": 4.504929939357938, "inheritedMomentumPercent": 3.8932970887114227, "macroCounterfactualPercent": 4.2219622349211505, "macroContributionPercent": 0.32866514620972787, "unexplainedExcessPercent": 0.2829677044367873, "counterfactualLowerPercent": 3.056451935456872, "counterfactualUpperPercent": 5.400653797980737, "preIncumbentPolicyChangePercent": 4.504929939357938, "verdict": "supported", "verdictText": "취임 전 가격 추세가 실제 변화의 절반 이상과 부합함. 정책의 인과효과나 책임을 의미하지 않음", "policyTiming": { "predecessorCarryover": [], "incumbentPolicies": [], "firstIncumbentPolicyDate": null }, "macroTraining": { "components": 6, "explainedVariance": 0.765237, "inputVariables": [ "kr_call_rate", "kr_short_rate", "krw_usd", "kr_industry_yoy", "kr_unemployment", "kr_consumer_confidence", "us_fedfunds", "us_10y", "us_industrial", "us_cpi", "us_unemployment", "oil_wti", "vix" ], "trainingObservations": 51, "fitScope": "pre-inauguration-only" }, "paths": [ { "date": "2003-03-31", "actual": 0.21851845686188553, "inheritedMomentum": 0.23064980008366529, "macroCounterfactual": 0.1549252533682001 }, { "date": "2003-04-30", "actual": 1.1825416992822815, "inheritedMomentum": 0.4841999303707707, "macroCounterfactual": 0.39989489222292796 }, { "date": "2003-05-31", "actual": 2.146564941702722, "inheritedMomentum": 0.7584462346801876, "macroCounterfactual": 0.7031546653256537 }, { "date": "2003-06-30", "actual": 3.1427223084285236, "inheritedMomentum": 1.0514158689246278, "macroCounterfactual": 1.135320828773006 }, { "date": "2003-07-31", "actual": 3.7503846850149776, "inheritedMomentum": 1.361350637317648, "macroCounterfactual": 1.6126956840153281 }, { "date": "2003-08-31", "actual": 4.318843074122632, "inheritedMomentum": 1.6866825572109219, "macroCounterfactual": 2.091908974575697 }, { "date": "2003-09-30", "actual": 4.946107494801247, "inheritedMomentum": 2.0260125261652466, "macroCounterfactual": 2.483154457758984 }, { "date": "2003-10-31", "actual": 5.354294089808452, "inheritedMomentum": 2.3780915468872346, "macroCounterfactual": 2.84935276502961 }, { "date": "2003-11-30", "actual": 5.722978760056517, "inheritedMomentum": 2.7418041737001406, "macroCounterfactual": 3.102704136840807 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "actual": 4.882313921657803, "inheritedMomentum": 3.1161538925426973, "macroCounterfactual": 3.4481097715380855 }, { "date": "2004-01-31", "actual": 4.346961297279011, "inheritedMomentum": 3.5002501883546837, "macroCounterfactual": 3.8430856623730287 }, { "date": "2004-02-29", "actual": 4.504929939357941, "inheritedMomentum": 3.8932970887114324, "macroCounterfactual": 4.2219622349211585 } ] }, { "termId": "roh_moo_hyun", "regionId": "nationwide", "horizonMonths": 24, "observedMonths": 24, "partialHorizon": false, "sampleStart": "2003-03-31", "sampleEnd": "2005-02-28", "actualChangePercent": 2.2911373662873658, "inheritedMomentumPercent": 9.110694105545637, "macroCounterfactualPercent": 6.1915673992197995, "macroContributionPercent": -2.9191267063258373, "unexplainedExcessPercent": 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3.102704136840807 }, { "date": "2003-12-31", "actual": 4.882313921657803, "inheritedMomentum": 3.1161538925426973, "macroCounterfactual": 3.4481097715380855 }, { "date": "2004-01-31", "actual": 4.346961297279011, "inheritedMomentum": 3.5002501883546837, "macroCounterfactual": 3.8430856623730287 }, { "date": "2004-02-29", "actual": 4.504929939357941, "inheritedMomentum": 3.8932970887114324, "macroCounterfactual": 4.2219622349211585 }, { "date": "2004-03-31", "actual": 4.6744719618861, "inheritedMomentum": 4.2945830019727165, "macroCounterfactual": 4.74891605469267 }, { "date": "2004-04-30", "actual": 4.834941961233764, "inheritedMomentum": 4.703471693008663, "macroCounterfactual": 5.146416009135323 }, { "date": "2004-05-31", "actual": 4.802294003797832, "inheritedMomentum": 5.119394260559578, "macroCounterfactual": 5.476994064758795 }, { "date": "2004-06-30", "actual": 4.518906002450748, "inheritedMomentum": 5.541841998128574, "macroCounterfactual": 5.7867510184911115 }, { "date": "2004-07-31", "actual": 4.22976377162487, "inheritedMomentum": 5.9703600355247906, "macroCounterfactual": 5.887274025622049 }, { "date": "2004-08-31", "actual": 3.809774204367607, "inheritedMomentum": 6.40454167120265, "macroCounterfactual": 6.027387589832904 }, { "date": "2004-09-30", "actual": 3.55084218602887, "inheritedMomentum": 6.844023316732721, "macroCounterfactual": 6.190060109471425 }, { "date": "2004-10-31", "actual": 3.2865004685787715, "inheritedMomentum": 7.288479984382995, "macroCounterfactual": 6.314768412741313 }, { "date": "2004-11-30", "actual": 2.761903311201816, "inheritedMomentum": 7.737621257125651, "macroCounterfactual": 6.3270306382838895 }, { "date": "2004-12-31", "actual": 2.285832182721325, "inheritedMomentum": 8.19118768761221, "macroCounterfactual": 6.257368534533134 }, { "date": "2005-01-31", "actual": 1.9972328049997674, "inheritedMomentum": 8.64894757894428, "macroCounterfactual": 6.160426494970305 }, { "date": "2005-02-28", "actual": 2.291137366287363, "inheritedMomentum": 9.11069410554563, "macroCounterfactual": 6.191567399219803 } ] }, { "termId": "lee_myung_bak", "regionId": "nationwide", "horizonMonths": 6, "observedMonths": 6, "partialHorizon": false, "sampleStart": "2008-03-31", "sampleEnd": "2008-08-31", "actualChangePercent": 5.683602302991808, "inheritedMomentumPercent": 2.4652813703541776, "macroCounterfactualPercent": 3.74091728060717, "macroContributionPercent": 1.2756359102529924, "unexplainedExcessPercent": 1.9426850223846381, "counterfactualLowerPercent": 2.641766163140291, "counterfactualUpperPercent": 4.8518387837970245, "preIncumbentPolicyChangePercent": 5.683602302991808, "verdict": "partially-supported", "verdictText": "취임 전 가격 추세가 실제 변화의 일부와 부합하지만 거시환경·정책효과를 분리할 수 없음", "policyTiming": { "predecessorCarryover": [], "incumbentPolicies": [], "firstIncumbentPolicyDate": null }, "macroTraining": { "components": 6, "explainedVariance": 0.679782, "inputVariables": [ "kr_call_rate", "kr_short_rate", "krw_usd", "kr_industry_yoy", "kr_unemployment", "kr_consumer_confidence", "us_fedfunds", "us_10y", "us_industrial", "us_cpi", "us_unemployment", "oil_wti", "vix" ], "trainingObservations": 60, "fitScope": "pre-inauguration-only" }, "paths": [ { "date": "2008-03-31", "actual": 1.05745449232386, "inheritedMomentum": 0.42856544977933436, "macroCounterfactual": 0.5475227934604074 }, { "date": "2008-04-30", "actual": 2.2697029237899105, "inheritedMomentum": 0.8429395979018319, "macroCounterfactual": 1.1390805910441228 }, { "date": "2008-05-31", "actual": 3.240242353485063, "inheritedMomentum": 1.2501104835142685, "macroCounterfactual": 1.890518938624057 }, { "date": "2008-06-30", "actual": 4.428424893541924, "inheritedMomentum": 1.6547256865472524, "macroCounterfactual": 2.5112526106025173 }, { "date": "2008-07-31", "actual": 5.200919183027744, "inheritedMomentum": 2.0593745462082595, "macroCounterfactual": 3.008120262343968 }, { "date": "2008-08-31", "actual": 5.6836023029918, "inheritedMomentum": 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"sampleStart": "2008-03-31", "sampleEnd": "2010-02-28", "actualChangePercent": 6.862748120892825, "inheritedMomentumPercent": 10.066235044186334, "macroCounterfactualPercent": 27.57635923982551, "macroContributionPercent": 17.51012419563918, "unexplainedExcessPercent": -20.713611118932686, "counterfactualLowerPercent": 24.887297971378032, "counterfactualUpperPercent": 30.32332111644469, "preIncumbentPolicyChangePercent": 6.862748120892825, "verdict": "supported", "verdictText": "취임 전 가격 추세가 실제 변화의 절반 이상과 부합함. 정책의 인과효과나 책임을 의미하지 않음", "policyTiming": { "predecessorCarryover": [], "incumbentPolicies": [], "firstIncumbentPolicyDate": null }, "macroTraining": { "components": 6, "explainedVariance": 0.679782, "inputVariables": [ "kr_call_rate", "kr_short_rate", "krw_usd", "kr_industry_yoy", "kr_unemployment", "kr_consumer_confidence", "us_fedfunds", "us_10y", "us_industrial", "us_cpi", "us_unemployment", "oil_wti", "vix" ], "trainingObservations": 60, "fitScope": "pre-inauguration-only" }, 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이상의 상승이 관측되지 않음", "policyTiming": { "predecessorCarryover": [], "incumbentPolicies": [], "firstIncumbentPolicyDate": null }, "macroTraining": { "components": 6, "explainedVariance": 0.834308, "inputVariables": [ "kr_call_rate", "kr_short_rate", "krw_usd", "kr_industry_yoy", "kr_unemployment", "kr_consumer_confidence", "us_fedfunds", "us_10y", "us_industrial", "us_cpi", "us_unemployment", "oil_wti", "vix" ], "trainingObservations": 60, "fitScope": "pre-inauguration-only" }, "paths": [ { "date": "2013-03-31", "actual": -0.07809801201419814, "inheritedMomentum": -0.11299686656066614, "macroCounterfactual": -0.12925910691083106 }, { "date": "2013-04-30", "actual": 0.03973943211658998, "inheritedMomentum": -0.17813114588417653, "macroCounterfactual": -0.20489013070031123 }, { "date": "2013-05-31", "actual": 0.21214640857259962, "inheritedMomentum": -0.20423285280252915, "macroCounterfactual": -0.26629840208149314 }, { "date": "2013-06-30", "actual": 0.24686146241513512, "inheritedMomentum": 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변화의 일부와 부합하지만 거시환경·정책효과를 분리할 수 없음", "policyTiming": { "predecessorCarryover": [], "incumbentPolicies": [], "firstIncumbentPolicyDate": null }, "macroTraining": { "components": 6, "explainedVariance": 0.834308, "inputVariables": [ "kr_call_rate", "kr_short_rate", "krw_usd", "kr_industry_yoy", "kr_unemployment", "kr_consumer_confidence", "us_fedfunds", "us_10y", "us_industrial", "us_cpi", "us_unemployment", "oil_wti", "vix" ], "trainingObservations": 60, "fitScope": "pre-inauguration-only" }, "paths": [ { "date": "2013-03-31", "actual": -0.07809801201419814, "inheritedMomentum": -0.11299686656066614, "macroCounterfactual": -0.12925910691083106 }, { "date": "2013-04-30", "actual": 0.03973943211658998, "inheritedMomentum": -0.17813114588417653, "macroCounterfactual": -0.20489013070031123 }, { "date": "2013-05-31", "actual": 0.21214640857259962, "inheritedMomentum": -0.20423285280252915, "macroCounterfactual": -0.26629840208149314 }, { "date": "2013-06-30", "actual": 0.24686146241513512, 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}, "macroTraining": { "components": 6, "explainedVariance": 0.834308, "inputVariables": [ "kr_call_rate", "kr_short_rate", "krw_usd", "kr_industry_yoy", "kr_unemployment", "kr_consumer_confidence", "us_fedfunds", "us_10y", "us_industrial", "us_cpi", "us_unemployment", "oil_wti", "vix" ], "trainingObservations": 60, "fitScope": "pre-inauguration-only" }, "paths": [ { "date": "2013-03-31", "actual": -0.07809801201419814, "inheritedMomentum": -0.11299686656066614, "macroCounterfactual": -0.12925910691083106 }, { "date": "2013-04-30", "actual": 0.03973943211658998, "inheritedMomentum": -0.17813114588417653, "macroCounterfactual": -0.20489013070031123 }, { "date": "2013-05-31", "actual": 0.21214640857259962, "inheritedMomentum": -0.20423285280252915, "macroCounterfactual": -0.26629840208149314 }, { "date": "2013-06-30", "actual": 0.24686146241513512, "inheritedMomentum": -0.19843444642898841, "macroCounterfactual": -0.2262018512760045 }, { "date": "2013-07-31", "actual": 0.1765161095143649, 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"correlation": -0.008795, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": -0.01197, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.020614, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.074754, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.101745, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.081406, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.024478, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.034638, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.015374, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.023921, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.063168, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.038917, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.025648, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.002968, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.012591, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.008957, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.027932, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.04951, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.047615, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.101013, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.056154, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.034585, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.036202, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.015008, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.018877, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.000365, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.022348, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": -0.018631, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.008024, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": -0.02075, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": -0.010267, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.041124, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": -0.000771, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.019044, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.001923, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.023299, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.048653, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.085328, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.092002, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.081654, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.072374, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.162732, "rawPValue": 0.047377503776709455, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.050568, "adjustedPValue": 0.5817560685843041, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.18913, "rawPValue": 0.029862366234772588, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.171993, "adjustedPValue": 0.04861239133595621, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.181222, "rawPValue": 0.11719055007910527, "rawN": 76, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.163085, "adjustedPValue": 0.159242437936431, "adjustedN": 76 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.038077, "qValue": 0.215022, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.050767, "qValue": 0.290862, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.111707, "qValue": 0.14265, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.100458, "qValue": 0.14265, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.075743, "qValue": 0.215022, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.082833, "qValue": 0.215022, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.074045, "qValue": 0.215022, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.081281, "qValue": 0.215022, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.07143, "qValue": 0.231348, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.048162, "qValue": 0.486315, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.042323, "qValue": 0.580828, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.043178, "qValue": 0.580828, "n": 319 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.053588, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.735756, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.149174, "qValue": 0.32903, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.122139, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.125093, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 7, "length": 5, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3~7개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": -0.007144, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "correlation": -0.011035, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "correlation": -0.000494, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "correlation": 0.004726, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "correlation": -0.023561, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.928958, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "correlation": -0.079243, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.67245, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "correlation": -0.041718, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.869473, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "correlation": -0.019254, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.971473, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": -0.025349, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.928958, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": -0.006138, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.037276, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888572, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.112657, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.610378, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.112768, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.610378, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.087944, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.630592, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.023141, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.928958, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.033274, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9147, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.003001, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.054554, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.735756, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.067334, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.67245, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.059164, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.700958, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.074421, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.67245, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.030725, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9147, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.000632, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.004056, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.053588, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.735756, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.064895, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.67245, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.063972, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.67245, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.149174, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.32903, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.108397, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.610378, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.087856, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.630592, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.092609, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.630592, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.074443, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.67245, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.064494, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.67245, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.046059, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.818052, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.049036, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.81057, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.045419, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.818052, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.066317, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.67245, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": 0.02299, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.928958, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": 0.032108, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9147, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": 0.001103, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": 0.038579, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888572, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.015919, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.004468, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.004725, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.993081, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.028572, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.928958, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.076293, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.67245, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.094978, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.630592, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.089966, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.630592, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.063544, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.686606, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.162732, "rawPValue": 0.047377503776709455, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.014717, "adjustedPValue": 0.8727095883625198, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.18913, "rawPValue": 0.029862366234772588, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.15886, "adjustedPValue": 0.06885391839085703, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.181222, "rawPValue": 0.11719055007910527, "rawN": 76, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.115174, "adjustedPValue": 0.32182017571078986, "adjustedN": 76 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.045074, "qValue": 0.149653, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.060124, "qValue": 0.199215, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.125093, "qValue": 0.081528, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.122806, "qValue": 0.081528, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.110225, "qValue": 0.081528, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.122139, "qValue": 0.081528, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.107813, "qValue": 0.081528, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.099822, "qValue": 0.113978, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.096583, "qValue": 0.149653, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.095349, "qValue": 0.191759, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.083997, "qValue": 0.285722, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.087117, "qValue": 0.285722, "n": 319 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.044907, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.129622, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.136161, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.149756, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 5, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3~5개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": 0.06566, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "correlation": 0.065951, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "correlation": 0.081392, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "correlation": 0.044591, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "correlation": 0.01344, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9157, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "correlation": -0.039808, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.767324, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "correlation": -0.042422, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.766801, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "correlation": 0.021442, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.891273, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": 0.047668, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": 0.061224, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.006519, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.967021, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.070017, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.063632, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.056324, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.003782, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.968806, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.023493, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.891273, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.012528, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9157, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.044241, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.06908, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.086334, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.076105, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.03859, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.767324, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.0134, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9157, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.000789, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.988586, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.044907, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.052101, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.046585, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.129622, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.07218, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.057565, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.055143, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.034627, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.792798, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.036114, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.791887, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.0269, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.882059, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.043826, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.052793, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.077866, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": 0.047613, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": 0.053909, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": 0.017073, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.910743, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": 0.05986, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": 0.003616, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.968806, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": 0.019736, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.891273, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": 0.019908, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.891273, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": 0.00847, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.959909, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.031143, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.84206, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.058687, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.05535, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.023331, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.891273, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.162732, "rawPValue": 0.047377503776709455, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.014717, "adjustedPValue": 0.8727095883625198, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.18913, "rawPValue": 0.029862366234772588, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.132932, "adjustedPValue": 0.1286373368494797, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.181222, "rawPValue": 0.11719055007910527, "rawN": 76, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.134407, "adjustedPValue": 0.24703837968878326, "adjustedN": 76 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.050406, "qValue": null, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.075457, "qValue": null, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.149756, "qValue": 0.048031, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.136161, "qValue": 0.048031, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.113269, "qValue": 0.074332, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.11133, "qValue": null, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.098442, "qValue": null, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.090321, "qValue": 0.173572, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.092468, "qValue": 0.173572, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.093182, "qValue": 0.194655, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.083773, "qValue": 0.306548, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.0856, "qValue": null, "n": 319 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.070974, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.417781, "n": 360, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.197525, "qValue": 0.00901, "n": 354, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 관찰되지만 미래반응 회귀에서 재현되지 않음" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.027932, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.101013, "qValue": 0.998831, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "judgement": "조정 후 두 모형 모두 뚜렷한 예측관계 확인 불가" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.053588, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.735756, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.149174, "qValue": 0.32903, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.122139, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.125093, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 7, "length": 5, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.044907, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.129622, "qValue": 0.75823, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.136161, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.149756, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 5, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" } ] }, { "id": "nationwide-hpi-kosdaq", "regionId": "nationwide", "regionLabel": "전국", "label": "전국 주택가격지수 ↔ KOSDAQ", "stockSeries": "kosdaqIndexReturn", "housingSeries": "housingPriceIndexReturn", "sampleStart": "1996-08-31", "sampleEnd": "2026-07-31", "sampleObservations": 360, "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": 0.012615, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.864396, "rawN": 360, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.03636, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 332 }, "bestStockLeadRaw": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.144107, "qValue": 0.062536, "n": 357, "significant10pct": true }, "bestStockLeadAdjusted": { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.085132, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.124535, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.124535, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 3, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3개월 일부 시점의 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "lagConvention": "positive lag = stock at month t versus housing at month t+lag", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "rawCorrelation": 0.103902, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.179861, "rawN": 336, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.013762, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 308, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "rawCorrelation": 0.038899, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.707739, "rawN": 337, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.033242, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 309, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "rawCorrelation": -0.000548, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.99199, "rawN": 338, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.020892, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 310, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "rawCorrelation": -0.01683, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.841063, "rawN": 339, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.02737, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 311, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "rawCorrelation": -0.028884, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.707739, "rawN": 340, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.008424, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 312, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "rawCorrelation": -0.029196, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.707739, "rawN": 341, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.035811, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 313, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "rawCorrelation": -0.063879, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.446373, "rawN": 342, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.04943, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 314, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "rawCorrelation": -0.050553, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.592392, "rawN": 343, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.024976, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 315, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "rawCorrelation": -0.028835, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.707739, "rawN": 344, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.031935, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 316, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "rawCorrelation": -0.083579, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.312738, "rawN": 345, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.012195, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 317, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "rawCorrelation": -0.167789, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.021269, "rawN": 346, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.082336, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 318, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "rawCorrelation": -0.193822, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.004594, "rawN": 347, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.101894, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 319, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "rawCorrelation": -0.243645, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.000209, "rawN": 348, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.113602, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 320, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "rawCorrelation": -0.208561, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.00212, "rawN": 349, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.056929, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 321, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "rawCorrelation": -0.142081, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.063417, "rawN": 350, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.031493, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 322, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "rawCorrelation": -0.103083, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.179861, "rawN": 351, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.019419, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 323, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "rawCorrelation": -0.116155, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.159737, "rawN": 352, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.017543, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 324, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "rawCorrelation": -0.087255, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.276838, "rawN": 353, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.037303, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 325, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "rawCorrelation": -0.064033, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.446373, "rawN": 354, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.018116, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 326, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "rawCorrelation": -0.046056, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.632018, "rawN": 355, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.043421, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 327, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "rawCorrelation": -0.031444, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.707739, "rawN": 356, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.020373, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 328, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "rawCorrelation": -0.027517, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.707739, "rawN": 357, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.016986, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 329, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "rawCorrelation": -0.029202, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.707739, "rawN": 358, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.045774, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 330, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "rawCorrelation": -0.033822, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.707739, "rawN": 359, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.079176, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 331, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": 0.012615, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.864396, "rawN": 360, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.03636, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 332, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "rawCorrelation": 0.07185, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.400776, "rawN": 359, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.001544, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.977676, "adjustedN": 331, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.105117, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.179861, "rawN": 358, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.003057, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.977676, "adjustedN": 330, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.144107, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.062536, "rawN": 357, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.079034, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 329, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "rawCorrelation": 0.111927, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.170362, "rawN": 356, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.047791, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.960596, "adjustedN": 328, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "rawCorrelation": 0.100491, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.179861, "rawN": 355, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.002249, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.977676, "adjustedN": 327, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.126504, "rawPValue": null, 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-0.050553, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.592392, "n": 343, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": -0.028835, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.707739, "n": 344, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": -0.083579, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.312738, "n": 345, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.167789, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.021269, "n": 346, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.193822, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.004594, "n": 347, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.243645, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.000209, "n": 348, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.208561, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.00212, "n": 349, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.142081, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.063417, "n": 350, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.103083, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179861, "n": 351, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.116155, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.159737, "n": 352, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": -0.087255, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.276838, "n": 353, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": -0.064033, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.446373, "n": 354, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": -0.046056, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.632018, "n": 355, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": -0.031444, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.707739, "n": 356, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": -0.027517, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.707739, "n": 357, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.029202, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.707739, "n": 358, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.033822, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.707739, "n": 359, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.012615, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.864396, "n": 360, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.07185, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.400776, "n": 359, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.105117, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179861, "n": 358, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.144107, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.062536, "n": 357, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.111927, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.170362, "n": 356, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.100491, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179861, "n": 355, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.126504, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.120759, "n": 354, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.068938, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.400776, "n": 353, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.031872, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.707739, "n": 352, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.015492, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.841063, "n": 351, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.003421, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.968929, "n": 350, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": -0.01612, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.841063, "n": 349, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.008158, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9169, "n": 348, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": -0.035904, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.707739, "n": 347, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": -0.036737, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.707739, "n": 346, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.071262, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.400776, "n": 345, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": -0.062721, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.446373, "n": 344, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.070103, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.400776, "n": 343, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.07462, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.400776, "n": 342, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.101719, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179861, "n": 341, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.101172, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179861, "n": 340, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.121276, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.15652, "n": 339, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.103667, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179861, "n": 338, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.028147, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.707739, "n": 337, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.052412, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.591782, "n": 336, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.153822, "rawPValue": 0.0610699324981931, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.153822, "adjustedPValue": 0.0610699324981931, "adjustedN": 149 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.103604, "rawPValue": 0.2371346479187113, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.103604, "adjustedPValue": 0.2371346479187113, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.224711, "rawPValue": 0.05099141007361915, "rawN": 76, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.224711, "adjustedPValue": 0.05099141007361915, "adjustedN": 76 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.054527, "qValue": 0.029301, "n": 357 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.084105, "qValue": 0.030963, "n": 356 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.129471, "qValue": 0.013674, "n": 355 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.100876, "qValue": 0.029301, "n": 354 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.08831, "qValue": 0.091917, "n": 353 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.117161, "qValue": 0.091917, "n": 352 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.061295, "qValue": 0.35496, "n": 351 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.02578, "qValue": 0.79318, "n": 350 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.012791, "qValue": 0.871848, "n": 349 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": -0.006574, "qValue": 0.953496, "n": 348 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": -0.024107, "qValue": 0.820116, "n": 347 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.003331, "qValue": 0.955776, "n": 346 } ] }, "domestic": { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.028839, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.1053, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.120966, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.120966, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 3, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3개월 일부 시점의 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": 0.017496, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "correlation": -0.053607, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.851709, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "correlation": -0.031118, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "correlation": -0.019129, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "correlation": -0.021764, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "correlation": -0.032177, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "correlation": -0.009741, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "correlation": 0.00816, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.943044, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": 0.043246, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.939014, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": 0.009576, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.066439, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.071874, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.118772, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.062326, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.029519, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.004273, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.95688, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.013942, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.013447, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.034715, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.018104, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": -0.002997, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.95688, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": -0.037332, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.941939, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.040817, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.939014, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.067123, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.028839, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.003615, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.95688, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.011828, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.072085, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.021623, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": -0.015729, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.01193, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": -0.038433, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.941939, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": -0.058772, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.793675, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.069368, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.08898, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": -0.086875, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": -0.042331, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.939014, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": -0.0712, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": -0.054672, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.851709, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.084255, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": -0.069716, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.062185, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.046802, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.939014, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.064378, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.067315, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.1053, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.090487, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.017798, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.019352, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 21, "rawCorrelation": -0.115974, "rawPValue": 0.15898805624890366, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.109358, "adjustedPValue": 0.23246491748580797, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 21, "rawCorrelation": -0.078597, "rawPValue": 0.3703530002215529, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.144753, "adjustedPValue": 0.09772262125014841, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 21, "rawCorrelation": -0.145765, "rawPValue": 0.27492367647520916, "rawN": 58, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.218444, "adjustedPValue": 0.09948238866380726, "adjustedN": 58 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.040771, "qValue": 0.164855, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.06145, "qValue": 0.164855, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.120966, "qValue": 0.043447, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.081664, "qValue": 0.164855, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.046454, "qValue": 0.516171, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.074526, "qValue": 0.262761, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.023324, "qValue": 0.84106, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.006628, "qValue": 0.952051, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": -0.000254, "qValue": 0.994782, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": -0.019741, "qValue": 0.862745, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": -0.031603, "qValue": 0.84106, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": -0.011475, "qValue": 0.952051, "n": 319 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.013022, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.912901, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.114839, "qValue": 0.504194, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.12557, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.12557, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 3, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3개월 일부 시점의 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": -0.01693, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.912901, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "correlation": -0.067955, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "correlation": -0.068054, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "correlation": -0.044676, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "correlation": -0.027477, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "correlation": -0.051396, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "correlation": -0.035781, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "correlation": -0.019806, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.889621, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": 0.027982, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": -0.006136, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.932377, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.090038, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.113962, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.504194, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.129177, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.504194, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.061679, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.029072, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.007942, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.924681, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.012708, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.912901, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.051304, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.03138, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.040333, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.03355, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": -0.003586, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.94834, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.031769, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.064596, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.013022, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.912901, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.021408, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876945, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.028209, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.111221, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.504194, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.082055, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.038379, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.070753, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.012932, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.912901, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": -0.028567, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.030363, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.009857, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.918841, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": -0.043165, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.009713, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.918841, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": -0.02709, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": -0.023531, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.871602, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.05604, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": -0.037822, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.064656, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.044384, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.066475, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.05272, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.110552, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.504194, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.114839, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.504194, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.029344, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.028581, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83403, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 22, "rawCorrelation": -0.09441, "rawPValue": 0.2520969807861843, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.074554, "adjustedPValue": 0.4163824583506398, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 22, "rawCorrelation": -0.056921, "rawPValue": 0.5168059306657271, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.087559, "adjustedPValue": 0.3181190052081923, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 22, "rawCorrelation": -0.143105, "rawPValue": 0.2882528163319513, "rawN": 57, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.076438, "adjustedPValue": 0.5719789580783244, "adjustedN": 57 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.043308, "qValue": 0.128324, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.068676, "qValue": 0.127038, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.12557, "qValue": 0.03144, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.093377, "qValue": 0.127038, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.072131, "qValue": 0.194648, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.098378, "qValue": 0.127038, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.041041, "qValue": 0.560733, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.013096, "qValue": 0.882214, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.012929, "qValue": 0.882214, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.00713, "qValue": 0.882214, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": -0.009947, "qValue": 0.882214, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.014155, "qValue": 0.882214, "n": 319 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.03636, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.085132, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.124535, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.124535, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 3, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3개월 일부 시점의 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": 0.013762, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "correlation": -0.033242, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "correlation": -0.020892, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "correlation": -0.02737, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "correlation": -0.008424, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "correlation": -0.035811, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "correlation": -0.04943, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "correlation": -0.024976, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": 0.031935, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": 0.012195, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.082336, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.101894, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.113602, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.056929, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.031493, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.019419, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.017543, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.037303, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.018116, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.043421, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.020373, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": -0.016986, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.045774, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.079176, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.03636, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": -0.001544, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.977676, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.003057, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.977676, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.079034, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.047791, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.002249, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.977676, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.036651, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": -0.020762, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": -0.062766, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.052739, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.022757, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": -0.045939, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.009884, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": -0.01232, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": -0.01648, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.051796, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": -0.031337, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.052299, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.025996, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.048541, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.021443, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.073975, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.085132, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": 0.002295, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.977676, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": 0.009791, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 22, "rawCorrelation": -0.09441, "rawPValue": 0.2520969807861843, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.074554, "adjustedPValue": 0.4163824583506398, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 22, "rawCorrelation": -0.056921, "rawPValue": 0.5168059306657271, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.054306, "adjustedPValue": 0.536278745886287, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 22, "rawCorrelation": -0.143105, "rawPValue": 0.2882528163319513, "rawN": 57, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.037532, "adjustedPValue": 0.7816419973396987, "adjustedN": 57 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.045417, "qValue": null, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.070668, "qValue": null, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.124535, "qValue": 0.031545, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.084467, "qValue": 0.110216, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.055631, "qValue": 0.439031, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.079744, "qValue": 0.999991, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.026063, "qValue": 0.999991, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": -0.000885, "qValue": 0.999991, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.001506, "qValue": 0.999991, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": -0.000695, "qValue": 0.999991, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": -0.016426, "qValue": 0.999991, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.006759, "qValue": 0.999991, "n": 319 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.012615, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.864396, "n": 360, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.144107, "qValue": 0.062536, "n": 357, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.094593, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.129471, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 6, "length": 6, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.028839, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942055, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.1053, "qValue": 0.781642, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.120966, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.120966, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 3, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.013022, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.912901, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.114839, "qValue": 0.504194, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.12557, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.12557, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 3, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.03636, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.085132, "qValue": 0.960596, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.124535, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.124535, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 3, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" } ] }, { "id": "nationwide-cap-kospi", "regionId": "nationwide", "regionLabel": "전국", "label": "전국 주택시가총액 ↔ KOSPI 시가총액", "stockSeries": "kospiMarketCapReturn", "housingSeries": "housingMarketCapReturn", "sampleStart": "1996-08-31", "sampleEnd": "2026-07-31", "sampleObservations": 360, "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": 0.085342, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.305449, "rawN": 360, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.060229, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.671521, "adjustedN": 332 }, "bestStockLeadRaw": { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.201371, "qValue": 0.006686, "n": 354, "significant10pct": true }, "bestStockLeadAdjusted": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.137304, "qValue": 0.621028, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.141953, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.154775, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 5, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3~5개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "lagConvention": "positive lag = stock at month t versus housing at month t+lag", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "rawCorrelation": 0.062869, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.529518, "rawN": 336, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.066047, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.671521, "adjustedN": 308, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "rawCorrelation": 0.025648, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.869688, "rawN": 337, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.06732, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.671521, "adjustedN": 309, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "rawCorrelation": 0.060102, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.529518, "rawN": 338, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.077596, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.671521, "adjustedN": 310, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "rawCorrelation": 0.054814, 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315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": 0.009328, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": 0.021974, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": 0.000292, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.999366, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.045288, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.067466, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.042526, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.009084, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.012423, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.031261, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.068529, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.124908, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.913713, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.095459, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.913713, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.083159, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.93401, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.038885, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.027242, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": 0.034443, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.049896, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.063644, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.073471, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.113868, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.913713, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.060318, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.038252, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.039264, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.009398, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.012435, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.000138, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.999366, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.027395, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": -0.013417, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.007084, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": -0.027381, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": -0.007766, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.048466, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": -4.5e-05, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.999366, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.022008, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.003506, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.999366, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.02881, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.04503, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.097802, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.913713, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.095504, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.913713, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.082535, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.93401, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.081722, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.93401, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.162034, "rawPValue": 0.04834886691906897, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.050941, "adjustedPValue": 0.5789649398684565, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.18979, "rawPValue": 0.029284771826764217, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.173234, "adjustedPValue": 0.046986821950160136, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.183831, "rawPValue": 0.11191965156420576, "rawN": 76, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.136113, "adjustedPValue": 0.24103321832250935, "adjustedN": 76 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.040597, "qValue": 0.289011, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.067349, "qValue": 0.289011, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.107578, "qValue": 0.289011, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.088077, "qValue": 0.289011, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.063692, "qValue": 0.315453, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.072123, "qValue": 0.315453, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.055252, "qValue": 0.338525, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.060386, "qValue": 0.315453, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.055423, "qValue": 0.338525, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.032902, "qValue": 0.604539, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.039769, "qValue": 0.604539, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.039524, "qValue": 0.604539, "n": 319 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.080493, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.501667, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.168938, "qValue": 0.10324, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "projectionJudgement": "조건부 미래반응 회귀에서 유의한 관계 확인 불가", "judgement": "조정 후 두 모형 모두 뚜렷한 예측관계 확인 불가", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": 0.014112, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "correlation": 0.015302, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "correlation": 0.021779, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "correlation": 0.032521, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.843034, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "correlation": 0.006047, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960305, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "correlation": -0.059357, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.65742, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "correlation": -0.019528, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "correlation": -0.003315, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960305, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": -0.002819, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960305, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": 0.033111, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.843034, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.014346, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.077433, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.520053, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.069662, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.582418, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.046229, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.740586, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.014492, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.019149, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.04914, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.740586, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.106335, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.408283, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.134852, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.269201, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.12121, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.348054, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.132334, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.269201, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.070626, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.580309, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.045577, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.740586, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": 0.046046, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.740586, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.080493, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.501667, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.084059, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.494571, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.09815, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.408283, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.168938, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.10324, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.115276, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.361746, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.099919, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.408283, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.101654, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.408283, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.076332, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.520053, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.066105, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.582626, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.044714, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.740586, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.039765, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.779167, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.047556, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.740586, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.064533, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.582626, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": 0.013335, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": 0.03729, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.802327, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.002806, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960305, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": 0.041672, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.777939, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.015643, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.003539, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.960305, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.013768, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.022896, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.904792, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.085774, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.494571, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.095363, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.459249, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.090433, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.494571, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.067116, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.582626, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.162034, "rawPValue": 0.04834886691906897, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.014865, "adjustedPValue": 0.8714428193075006, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.18979, "rawPValue": 0.029284771826764217, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.162398, "adjustedPValue": 0.06282325621373971, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.183831, "rawPValue": 0.11191965156420576, "rawN": 76, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.071007, "adjustedPValue": 0.5421694332511389, "adjustedN": 76 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.045856, "qValue": 0.143547, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.079414, "qValue": 0.125916, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.123949, "qValue": 0.125916, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.110756, "qValue": 0.125916, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.105065, "qValue": 0.125916, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.117094, "qValue": 0.125916, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.096304, "qValue": 0.143547, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.088127, "qValue": 0.14578, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.084749, "qValue": 0.183943, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.08082, "qValue": 0.245901, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.079236, "qValue": 0.314646, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.086925, "qValue": 0.309689, "n": 319 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.060229, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.137304, "qValue": 0.621028, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.141953, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.154775, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 5, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3~5개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": 0.066047, "pValue": null, 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0.071072, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.01512, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.882779, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.070621, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.050128, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.050757, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -4.8e-05, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.999322, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.009113, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.923, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.023377, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.882779, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.048024, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { 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false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.137304, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.621028, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.081512, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.05903, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.071913, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.050459, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.041903, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.036068, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.747012, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.049753, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.06068, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.089526, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": 0.044277, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": 0.061122, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": 0.01382, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.882779, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": 0.061644, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": 0.002005, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.991968, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": 0.021376, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.882779, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": 0.013591, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.882779, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": 0.016389, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.882779, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.046157, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.063234, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.048367, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.030262, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.812265, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.162034, "rawPValue": 0.04834886691906897, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.014865, "adjustedPValue": 0.8714428193075006, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.18979, "rawPValue": 0.029284771826764217, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.136066, "adjustedPValue": 0.11979039530717954, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.183831, "rawPValue": 0.11191965156420576, "rawN": 76, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.142431, "adjustedPValue": 0.21968127815896807, "adjustedN": 76 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.049719, "qValue": null, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.089104, "qValue": 0.999935, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.154775, "qValue": 0.051177, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.141953, "qValue": 0.051177, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.115463, "qValue": 0.097064, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.114556, "qValue": null, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.102805, "qValue": 0.999935, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.094975, "qValue": 0.193382, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.097495, "qValue": 0.193382, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.090878, "qValue": 0.253785, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.088636, "qValue": 0.364237, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.097407, "qValue": null, "n": 319 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.085342, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.305449, "n": 360, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.201371, "qValue": 0.006686, "n": 354, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 관찰되지만 미래반응 회귀에서 재현되지 않음" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.049896, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981907, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.113868, "qValue": 0.913713, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "judgement": "조정 후 두 모형 모두 뚜렷한 예측관계 확인 불가" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.080493, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.501667, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.168938, "qValue": 0.10324, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "judgement": "조정 후 두 모형 모두 뚜렷한 예측관계 확인 불가" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.060229, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671521, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.137304, "qValue": 0.621028, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.141953, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.154775, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 5, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" } ] }, { "id": "nationwide-cap-kosdaq", "regionId": "nationwide", "regionLabel": "전국", "label": "전국 주택시가총액 ↔ KOSDAQ 시가총액", "stockSeries": "kosdaqMarketCapReturn", "housingSeries": "housingMarketCapReturn", "sampleStart": "1996-08-31", "sampleEnd": "2026-07-31", "sampleObservations": 360, "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": 0.017991, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.876774, "rawN": 360, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.030172, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 332 }, "bestStockLeadRaw": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.147298, "qValue": 0.043235, "n": 357, "significant10pct": true }, "bestStockLeadAdjusted": { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.095269, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.087099, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.127053, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 2, "end": 4, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "통계적으로 검출됐지만 양(+) 미래반응이 매우 작음", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "lagConvention": "positive lag = stock at month t versus housing at month t+lag", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "rawCorrelation": 0.100967, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.197584, "rawN": 336, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.012182, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 308, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "rawCorrelation": 0.040296, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.684445, "rawN": 337, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.029363, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 309, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "rawCorrelation": -2.3e-05, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.999663, "rawN": 338, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.02017, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 310, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "rawCorrelation": -0.016314, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.876774, "rawN": 339, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.026522, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 311, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "rawCorrelation": -0.033018, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.76162, "rawN": 340, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.006153, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.968246, "adjustedN": 312, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "rawCorrelation": -0.031378, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.767172, "rawN": 341, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.041352, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 313, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "rawCorrelation": -0.067453, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.426298, "rawN": 342, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.045364, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 314, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "rawCorrelation": -0.063796, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.433082, "rawN": 343, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.030551, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 315, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "rawCorrelation": -0.042629, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.680665, "rawN": 344, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.031117, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 316, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "rawCorrelation": -0.088748, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.257448, "rawN": 345, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.01479, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 317, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "rawCorrelation": -0.181831, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.008304, "rawN": 346, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.089316, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 318, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "rawCorrelation": -0.205394, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.001903, "rawN": 347, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.109319, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 319, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "rawCorrelation": -0.248303, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.000135, "rawN": 348, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.105535, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 320, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "rawCorrelation": -0.214967, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.001261, "rawN": 349, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.053292, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 321, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "rawCorrelation": -0.152703, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.041073, "rawN": 350, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.034977, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 322, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "rawCorrelation": -0.106908, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.167555, "rawN": 351, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.010957, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 323, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "rawCorrelation": -0.120565, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.128947, "rawN": 352, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.013768, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 324, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "rawCorrelation": -0.090849, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.240407, "rawN": 353, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.040411, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 325, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "rawCorrelation": -0.059473, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.462729, "rawN": 354, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.022421, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 326, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "rawCorrelation": -0.039565, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.684445, "rawN": 355, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.040353, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 327, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "rawCorrelation": -0.012298, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.876774, "rawN": 356, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.018577, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 328, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "rawCorrelation": -0.014975, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.876774, "rawN": 357, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.014417, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 329, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "rawCorrelation": -0.017225, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.876774, "rawN": 358, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.048367, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.940452, "adjustedN": 330, 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양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": 0.100967, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.197584, "n": 336, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "correlation": 0.040296, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.684445, "n": 337, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "correlation": -2.3e-05, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.999663, "n": 338, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "correlation": -0.016314, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876774, "n": 339, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "correlation": -0.033018, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.76162, "n": 340, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "correlation": -0.031378, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.767172, "n": 341, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "correlation": -0.067453, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.426298, "n": 342, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "correlation": -0.063796, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.433082, "n": 343, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": -0.042629, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.680665, "n": 344, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": -0.088748, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.257448, "n": 345, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.181831, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.008304, "n": 346, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.205394, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.001903, "n": 347, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.248303, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.000135, "n": 348, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.214967, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.001261, "n": 349, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.152703, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.041073, "n": 350, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.106908, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.167555, "n": 351, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.120565, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.128947, "n": 352, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": -0.090849, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.240407, "n": 353, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": -0.059473, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.462729, "n": 354, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": -0.039565, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.684445, "n": 355, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": -0.012298, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876774, "n": 356, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": -0.014975, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876774, "n": 357, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.017225, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876774, "n": 358, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.010626, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876774, "n": 359, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.017991, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876774, "n": 360, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.078324, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.339503, "n": 359, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.115316, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.142803, "n": 358, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.147298, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.043235, "n": 357, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.113495, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.143832, "n": 356, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.098562, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.197584, "n": 355, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.1272, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.116493, "n": 354, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.064395, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.428747, "n": 353, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.023656, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.871145, "n": 352, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.011895, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876774, "n": 351, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.012632, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876774, "n": 350, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": -0.019962, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876774, "n": 349, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.005118, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.943462, "n": 348, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": -0.047086, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.623731, "n": 347, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": -0.038217, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.689741, "n": 346, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.074234, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.359837, "n": 345, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": -0.066659, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.426298, "n": 344, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.075467, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.359837, "n": 343, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.074654, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.359837, "n": 342, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.108377, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.167555, "n": 341, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.093347, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.240407, "n": 340, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.125486, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.127585, "n": 339, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.107702, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.167555, "n": 338, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.022879, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.871145, "n": 337, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.0511, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.59207, "n": 336, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.152553, "rawPValue": 0.06326060805867532, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.152553, "adjustedPValue": 0.06326060805867532, "adjustedN": 149 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.108123, "rawPValue": 0.21718614010342321, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.108123, "adjustedPValue": 0.21718614010342321, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.20976, "rawPValue": 0.06896756747465974, "rawN": 76, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.20976, "adjustedPValue": 0.06896756747465974, "adjustedN": 76 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.05789, "qValue": 0.015864, "n": 357 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.093202, "qValue": 0.015864, "n": 356 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.13083, "qValue": 0.010147, "n": 355 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.100653, "qValue": 0.021214, "n": 354 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.084181, "qValue": 0.114427, "n": 353 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.116327, "qValue": 0.089213, "n": 352 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.055819, "qValue": 0.425687, "n": 351 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.016758, "qValue": 0.812574, "n": 350 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.007614, "qValue": 0.891063, "n": 349 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": -0.017397, "qValue": 0.812574, "n": 348 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": -0.027235, "qValue": 0.812574, "n": 347 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.000779, "qValue": 0.989421, "n": 346 } ] }, "domestic": { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.020925, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.111539, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.11966, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.11966, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 3, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3개월 일부 시점의 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": 0.013154, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "correlation": -0.05372, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.893916, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "correlation": -0.03328, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "correlation": -0.02109, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "correlation": -0.022749, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "correlation": -0.037227, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "correlation": -0.015249, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "correlation": -0.009569, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.917643, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": 0.025933, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": -0.0014, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.980187, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.084942, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.09063, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.127471, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.072029, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.040816, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.006155, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.931267, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.016562, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.011706, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.046105, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.028724, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.022957, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": -0.018901, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.025414, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.040076, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.020925, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.013844, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.02069, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.076645, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.022758, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": -0.021881, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.00838, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.917643, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": -0.045057, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": -0.067958, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.070731, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.093468, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": -0.086176, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": -0.037024, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": -0.079978, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": -0.056388, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.860646, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.08707, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": -0.073914, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.069563, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.046336, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.073201, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.057398, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.860646, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.111539, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.095509, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.012062, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.020014, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 21, "rawCorrelation": -0.121108, "rawPValue": 0.14121373977734916, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.115082, "adjustedPValue": 0.20877479010631472, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 21, "rawCorrelation": -0.080267, "rawPValue": 0.36023989194153666, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.147856, "adjustedPValue": 0.09066741236473286, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 21, "rawCorrelation": -0.14297, "rawPValue": 0.2843345251119068, "rawN": 58, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.145688, "adjustedPValue": 0.27518232745953003, "adjustedN": 58 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.048533, "qValue": 0.104583, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.069991, "qValue": 0.104583, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.11966, "qValue": 0.042927, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.076055, "qValue": 0.150268, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.033741, "qValue": 0.701935, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.065404, "qValue": 0.331706, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.010593, "qValue": 0.85467, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": -0.011592, "qValue": 0.85467, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": -0.011142, "qValue": 0.85467, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": -0.035131, "qValue": 0.701935, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": -0.037542, "qValue": 0.741045, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": -0.012851, "qValue": 0.85467, "n": 319 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.002962, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.95712, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.121447, "qValue": 0.395776, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.101165, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.124461, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 2, "end": 3, "length": 2, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "2, 3개월 일부 시점의 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": -0.021876, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.882206, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "correlation": -0.065211, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "correlation": -0.067614, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "correlation": -0.045579, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "correlation": -0.025503, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.874861, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "correlation": -0.055011, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "correlation": -0.038624, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "correlation": -0.034011, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": 0.014718, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.883304, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": -0.013954, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.883304, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.107598, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.451367, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.12853, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.395776, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.13133, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.395776, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.069424, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.037941, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.006722, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.923057, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.011664, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.883304, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.054726, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.043721, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.05134, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.055132, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.016807, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.883304, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.014125, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.883304, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.035494, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.002962, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.95712, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.033522, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.042641, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.121447, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.395776, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.08654, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.038623, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.072957, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.011691, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.883304, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": -0.034212, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.0339, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.018635, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.883304, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": -0.047055, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.01081, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.883304, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": -0.039552, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": -0.024817, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.874861, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.056988, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": -0.042619, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.069901, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.042437, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.079977, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.042122, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789141, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.116306, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.395776, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.120297, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.395776, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": -0.023676, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.874861, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": -0.024066, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.874861, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.152553, "rawPValue": 0.06326060805867532, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.041419, "adjustedPValue": 0.6519351577726482, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.108123, "rawPValue": 0.21718614010342321, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.095108, "adjustedPValue": 0.2780204332776215, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.20976, "rawPValue": 0.06896756747465974, "rawN": 76, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.183411, "adjustedPValue": 0.11275645549256806, "adjustedN": 76 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.048831, "qValue": 0.108921, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.077868, "qValue": 0.094197, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.124461, "qValue": 0.03317, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.087152, "qValue": 0.115331, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.062807, "qValue": 0.323376, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.091364, "qValue": 0.134385, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.032286, "qValue": 0.778971, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.000141, "qValue": 0.997185, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.003183, "qValue": 0.997185, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": -0.007629, "qValue": 0.997185, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": -0.018762, "qValue": 0.997185, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.01345, "qValue": 0.997185, "n": 319 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.030172, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.095269, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.087099, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.127053, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 2, "end": 4, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "통계적으로 검출됐지만 양(+) 미래반응이 매우 작음", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -24, "correlation": 0.012182, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -23, "correlation": -0.029363, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -22, "correlation": -0.02017, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -21, "correlation": -0.026522, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -20, "correlation": -0.006153, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.968246, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -19, "correlation": -0.041352, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -18, "correlation": -0.045364, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -17, "correlation": -0.030551, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -16, "correlation": 0.031117, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -15, "correlation": 0.01479, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -14, "correlation": -0.089316, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -13, "correlation": -0.109319, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.105535, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.053292, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.034977, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.010957, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.013768, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.040411, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.022421, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.040353, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.018577, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": -0.014417, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.048367, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.072259, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.030172, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.004935, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.968246, "n": 331, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.001756, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.974647, "n": 330, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.084867, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.055813, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 328, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.001981, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.974647, "n": 327, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.048993, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 326, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": -0.011465, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 325, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": -0.062409, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 324, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.043532, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 323, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.016334, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 322, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": -0.042039, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 321, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.026991, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 320, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 13, "correlation": -0.017288, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 319, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 14, "correlation": -0.013871, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 318, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 15, "correlation": -0.048973, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 317, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 16, "correlation": -0.031993, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 316, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 17, "correlation": -0.052435, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 315, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 18, "correlation": -0.018402, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 314, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 19, "correlation": -0.058165, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 313, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 20, "correlation": -0.008487, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.959643, "n": 312, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.084596, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.095269, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 23, "correlation": 0.015985, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 309, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 24, "correlation": 0.012838, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 308, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 22, "rawCorrelation": -0.102135, "rawPValue": 0.21517431024354397, "rawN": 149, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.084508, "adjustedPValue": 0.3567447239645973, "adjustedN": 121 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 22, "rawCorrelation": -0.059118, "rawPValue": 0.5007315089065963, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.057639, "adjustedPValue": 0.5115204173652043, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 22, "rawCorrelation": -0.126695, "rawPValue": 0.34766519029904874, "rawN": 57, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.033058, "adjustedPValue": 0.8071375682300556, "adjustedN": 57 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.051128, "qValue": null, "n": 330 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.078452, "qValue": 0.065834, "n": 329 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.127053, "qValue": 0.024274, "n": 328 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.087099, "qValue": 0.065834, "n": 327 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.053517, "qValue": 0.352366, "n": 326 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.081717, "qValue": null, "n": 325 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.028368, "qValue": null, "n": 324 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": -0.001857, "qValue": 0.999785, "n": 323 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.004952, "qValue": 0.999785, "n": 322 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": -0.006926, "qValue": 0.999785, "n": 321 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": -0.018512, "qValue": 0.999785, "n": 320 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.017898, "qValue": 0.999785, "n": 319 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.017991, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.876774, "n": 360, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.147298, "qValue": 0.043235, "n": 357, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.100653, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.13083, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 4, "length": 4, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.020925, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.907575, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 21, "correlation": -0.111539, "qValue": 0.68138, "n": 311, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.11966, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.11966, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 3, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.002962, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.95712, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.121447, "qValue": 0.395776, "n": 329, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.101165, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.124461, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 2, "end": 3, "length": 2, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.030172, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 332, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 22, "correlation": -0.095269, "qValue": 0.940452, "n": 310, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.087099, "peakHorizon": 3, "peakBeta": 0.127053, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 2, "end": 4, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" } ] }, { "id": "seoul-hpi-kospi", "regionId": "seoul", "regionLabel": "서울", "label": "서울 주택가격지수 ↔ KOSPI", "stockSeries": "kospiIndexReturn", "housingSeries": "housingPriceIndexReturn", "sampleStart": "2003-12-31", "sampleEnd": "2026-07-31", "sampleObservations": 272, "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": 0.026879, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.748822, "rawN": 272, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.059161, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.550179, "adjustedN": 261 }, "bestStockLeadRaw": { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.171424, "qValue": 0.058284, "n": 267, "significant10pct": true }, "bestStockLeadAdjusted": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.195831, "qValue": 0.047613, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.21875, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.33011, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 4, "end": 12, "length": 9, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "4~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "lagConvention": "positive lag = stock at month t versus housing at month t+lag", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "rawCorrelation": -0.101957, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.194096, "rawN": 260, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.020875, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.774043, "adjustedN": 249, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "rawCorrelation": -0.020177, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.78331, "rawN": 261, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.05064, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.550179, "adjustedN": 250, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "rawCorrelation": 0.056411, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.53399, "rawN": 262, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.086614, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.517067, "adjustedN": 251, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, 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"2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "correlation": 0.080136, "pValue": 0.48265119768718223, "n": 79 } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.26083, "rawPValue": 0.04232643617101748, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.26067, "adjustedPValue": 0.06749771186633335, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.058817, "rawPValue": 0.5029134627612383, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.061961, "adjustedPValue": 0.48032420248238716, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.227222, "rawPValue": 0.06443454004921247, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.204747, "adjustedPValue": 0.09650334490069942, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.098291, "qValue": 0.980555, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.152493, "qValue": 0.152435, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.101996, "qValue": 0.195945, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.201504, "qValue": 0.006375, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.21986, "qValue": 0.002926, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.194522, "qValue": 0.007907, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.141454, "qValue": 0.052924, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.21875, "qValue": 0.019476, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.20547, "qValue": 0.008232, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.231522, "qValue": 0.008291, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.317857, "qValue": 0.006375, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.33011, "qValue": 0.006375, "n": 248 } ], "stages": { "raw": { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.026879, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.748822, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.171424, "qValue": 0.058284, "n": 267, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "약한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.147732, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.186661, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 10, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "1~10개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.101957, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.194096, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.020177, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.78331, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.056411, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.53399, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.074979, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.352438, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.046225, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.63128, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.019504, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.78331, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.013789, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.82288, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": -0.030792, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.748822, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": -0.029115, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.748822, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": -0.038588, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.695505, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.076705, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.352438, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.07614, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.352438, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.026879, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.748822, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.131514, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.107369, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.16717, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.058284, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.153593, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.058284, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.142601, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.081319, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.171424, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.058284, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.157781, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.058284, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.101811, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.194096, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.129337, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.107369, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.124924, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.107369, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.10502, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.194096, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.125468, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.107369, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.162855, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.058284, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 5, "rawCorrelation": 0.12345, "rawPValue": 0.34319992081153794, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.12345, "adjustedPValue": 0.34319992081153794, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 5, "rawCorrelation": 0.088716, "rawPValue": 0.31174258778406455, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.088716, "adjustedPValue": 0.31174258778406455, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 5, "rawCorrelation": 0.314136, "rawPValue": 0.006417272374657106, "rawN": 74, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.314136, "adjustedPValue": 0.006417272374657106, "adjustedN": 74 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.099476, "qValue": 0.036041, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.142183, "qValue": 0.036011, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.147504, "qValue": 0.015663, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.149223, "qValue": 0.004659, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.176956, "qValue": 0.002704, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.181176, "qValue": 0.002704, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.119378, "qValue": 0.030585, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.147732, "qValue": 0.015663, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.151114, "qValue": 0.015071, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.12883, "qValue": 0.053493, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.150954, "qValue": 0.137104, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.186661, "qValue": 0.053493, "n": 258 } ] }, "domestic": { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.062663, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.445803, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.145597, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.147674, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.225157, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 12, "length": 12, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "1~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.068203, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.426884, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.015417, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.83773, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.069206, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.426884, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.05898, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.456488, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.027354, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.747933, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.099066, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.090858, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.080779, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.35357, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.096223, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.054794, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463366, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.0081, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.894605, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.020301, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.803663, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.062663, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.445803, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.107726, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.116386, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.100623, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.09812, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.101017, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.088318, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.042413, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.585456, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.093297, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.07963, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.35357, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.058337, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.456488, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.100752, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.145597, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.26083, "rawPValue": 0.04232643617101748, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.157533, "adjustedPValue": 0.22531989339873096, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.058817, "rawPValue": 0.5029134627612383, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.047925, "adjustedPValue": 0.5852752624963125, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.227222, "rawPValue": 0.06443454004921247, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.175163, "adjustedPValue": 0.15625629386661435, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.067142, "qValue": 0.073864, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.093356, "qValue": 0.096481, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.092225, "qValue": 0.090938, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.133466, "qValue": 0.027112, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.171842, "qValue": 0.01986, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.182363, "qValue": 0.012642, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.112253, "qValue": 0.055866, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.156866, "qValue": 0.01986, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.15876, "qValue": 0.009677, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.138482, "qValue": 0.073864, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.225157, "qValue": 0.027112, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.220702, "qValue": 0.027112, "n": 258 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.086062, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.266271, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.180434, "qValue": 0.107135, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.173035, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.263293, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 12, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.068561, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.351464, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.0378, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.599908, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.080226, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.285765, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.051735, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.469893, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.070885, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.343819, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.148853, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.187407, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.106793, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.194486, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.090082, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.266271, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.137974, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.187407, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.079037, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.285765, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.004966, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.936604, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.01868, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.796188, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.086062, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.266271, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.11353, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.194486, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.124693, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.187407, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.105782, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.194486, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.127728, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.187407, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.112698, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.194486, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.102895, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.194486, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.061107, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.395299, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.1199, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.194486, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.105269, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.194486, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.086799, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.266271, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.132477, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.187407, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.180434, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.107135, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.26083, "rawPValue": 0.04232643617101748, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.26067, "adjustedPValue": 0.06749771186633335, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.058817, "rawPValue": 0.5029134627612383, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.062599, "adjustedPValue": 0.47580546404646196, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.227222, "rawPValue": 0.06443454004921247, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.204791, "adjustedPValue": 0.09643079497667494, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.088572, "qValue": 0.05956, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.123207, "qValue": 0.100016, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.099364, "qValue": 0.058247, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.168221, "qValue": 0.011572, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.198852, "qValue": 0.007023, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.205994, "qValue": 0.011572, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.144543, "qValue": 0.026574, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.195367, "qValue": 0.020364, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.173035, "qValue": 0.017558, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.171384, "qValue": 0.03476, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.24761, "qValue": 0.020364, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.263293, "qValue": 0.017558, "n": 248 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.059161, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.195831, "qValue": 0.047613, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.21875, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.33011, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 4, "end": 12, "length": 9, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "4~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": 0.020875, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.774043, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.05064, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.086614, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.517067, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.033982, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.671959, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.138529, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.172394, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.073584, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.055422, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.139192, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.172394, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.093376, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.517067, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.050515, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.005447, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.930482, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.039964, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.620432, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.059161, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.048078, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.06876, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.05241, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.073507, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.051135, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.059372, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.023904, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.765854, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.088888, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.517067, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.084837, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.517067, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.08372, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.517067, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.144111, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.172394, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.195831, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.047613, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.26083, "rawPValue": 0.04232643617101748, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.26067, "adjustedPValue": 0.06749771186633335, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.058817, "rawPValue": 0.5029134627612383, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.061961, "adjustedPValue": 0.48032420248238716, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.227222, "rawPValue": 0.06443454004921247, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.204747, "adjustedPValue": 0.09650334490069942, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.098291, "qValue": 0.980555, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.152493, "qValue": 0.152435, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.101996, "qValue": 0.195945, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.201504, "qValue": 0.006375, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.21986, "qValue": 0.002926, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.194522, "qValue": 0.007907, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.141454, "qValue": 0.052924, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.21875, "qValue": 0.019476, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.20547, "qValue": 0.008232, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.231522, "qValue": 0.008291, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.317857, "qValue": 0.006375, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.33011, "qValue": 0.006375, "n": 248 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.026879, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.748822, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.171424, "qValue": 0.058284, "n": 267, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.147732, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.186661, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 10, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.062663, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.445803, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.145597, "qValue": 0.314321, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.147674, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.225157, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 12, "length": 12, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.086062, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.266271, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.180434, "qValue": 0.107135, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.173035, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.263293, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 12, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.059161, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.550179, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.195831, "qValue": 0.047613, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.21875, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.33011, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 4, "end": 12, "length": 9, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정" } ] }, { "id": "seoul-hpi-kosdaq", "regionId": "seoul", "regionLabel": "서울", "label": "서울 주택가격지수 ↔ KOSDAQ", "stockSeries": "kosdaqIndexReturn", "housingSeries": "housingPriceIndexReturn", "sampleStart": "2003-12-31", "sampleEnd": "2026-07-31", "sampleObservations": 272, "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": -0.071255, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.399298, "rawN": 272, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.007067, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.947429, "adjustedN": 261 }, "bestStockLeadRaw": { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.154895, "qValue": 0.086926, "n": 266, "significant10pct": true }, "bestStockLeadAdjusted": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.181138, "qValue": 0.103369, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 6, 7, 8, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 6, 7, 8, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.168652, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.235918, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 6, "end": 8, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "6~8개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "lagConvention": "positive lag = stock at month t versus housing at month t+lag", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "rawCorrelation": -0.161608, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.086926, "rawN": 260, 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"adjustedCorrelation": 0.322866, "adjustedPValue": 0.022202510220302552, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.075601, "rawPValue": 0.38892689698006244, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.066555, "adjustedPValue": 0.4483182229106526, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.148692, "rawPValue": 0.22979725832257877, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.137074, "adjustedPValue": 0.2686757138825328, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.126685, "qValue": null, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.197484, "qValue": 0.07561, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.091095, "qValue": 0.114753, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.090522, "qValue": 0.160232, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.138158, "qValue": 0.112023, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.168652, "qValue": 0.07561, "n": 254 }, { 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"longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 9, "length": 9, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "1~9개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.161608, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.086926, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.076088, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.393808, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.010645, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.863842, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.054286, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.453071, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.070222, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.399298, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": -0.028926, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.665882, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": -0.029765, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.665882, "n": 266, 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0.110241, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.093366, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.265305, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.13018, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.110241, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.154895, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.086926, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.095634, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.265305, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.101545, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.249237, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.067242, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.407722, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.056341, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.453071, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.0507, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.471229, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.127662, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.110241, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.128439, "rawPValue": 0.3238984772000253, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.128439, "adjustedPValue": 0.3238984772000253, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.157317, "rawPValue": 0.07162783905076019, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.157317, "adjustedPValue": 0.07162783905076019, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.297189, "rawPValue": 0.010669757893360485, "rawN": 73, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.297189, "adjustedPValue": 0.010669757893360485, "adjustedN": 73 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.109221, "qValue": 0.008227, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.179553, "qValue": 0.013896, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.147885, "qValue": 0.013896, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.11139, "qValue": 0.0352, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.149554, "qValue": 0.015694, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.186042, "qValue": 0.008227, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.118452, "qValue": 0.008227, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.11713, "qValue": 0.008227, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.092805, "qValue": 0.0352, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.077508, "qValue": 0.14812, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.068932, "qValue": 0.407846, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.146961, "qValue": 0.14812, "n": 258 } ] }, "domestic": { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.011139, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.92924, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.114719, "qValue": 0.544698, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", 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0.827038, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.112313, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.544698, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.073809, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.827038, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.045005, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.827038, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.061521, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.827038, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.086864, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.788707, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.021511, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.92924, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.049226, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.827038, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.004444, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942816, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.00594, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.942816, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.012347, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.92924, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.114719, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.544698, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.30456, "rawPValue": 0.017010882822932175, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.276015, "adjustedPValue": 0.03130577337627606, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.075601, "rawPValue": 0.38892689698006244, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.089791, "adjustedPValue": 0.30589024673059373, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.148692, "rawPValue": 0.22979725832257877, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.126855, "adjustedPValue": 0.3063319235603622, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.084577, "qValue": 0.078179, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.143308, "qValue": 0.094877, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.089347, "qValue": 0.129231, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.074333, "qValue": 0.225171, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.126873, "qValue": 0.129231, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.166065, "qValue": 0.094877, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.079368, "qValue": 0.129231, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.085318, "qValue": 0.129231, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.050948, "qValue": 0.297762, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.038541, "qValue": 0.543449, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.079908, "qValue": 0.337296, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.150735, "qValue": 0.225171, "n": 258 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.000234, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.996994, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.151142, "qValue": 0.345985, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.126406, "peakHorizon": 6, "peakBeta": 0.18848, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 5, "end": 8, "length": 4, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "5~8개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.139553, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.345985, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.034085, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.841184, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.018428, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.875778, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.039646, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.829692, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.018732, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.875778, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.06772, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.551896, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.045041, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.825908, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.081741, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.551896, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.096066, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.518809, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.030157, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.841184, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.010682, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.900169, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.095641, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.518809, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.000234, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.996994, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.074029, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.551896, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.122062, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.414457, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.069641, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.551896, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.066669, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.551896, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.071228, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.551896, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.10127, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.518809, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.042954, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.825908, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.067384, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.551896, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.016206, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.875778, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.015602, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.875778, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.029784, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.841184, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.151142, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.345985, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.30456, "rawPValue": 0.017010882822932175, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.322866, "adjustedPValue": 0.022202510220302455, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.075601, "rawPValue": 0.38892689698006244, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.096165, "adjustedPValue": 0.27268811274772103, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.148692, "rawPValue": 0.22979725832257877, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.13088, "adjustedPValue": 0.2911111345900852, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.106415, "qValue": 0.046464, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.171978, "qValue": 0.070848, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.097494, "qValue": 0.070848, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.105329, "qValue": 0.14965, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.154605, "qValue": 0.070848, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.18848, "qValue": 0.046464, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.120127, "qValue": 0.046464, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.126406, "qValue": 0.070848, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.077127, "qValue": 0.168325, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.062909, "qValue": 0.336126, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.096904, "qValue": 0.252093, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.196663, "qValue": 0.127676, "n": 248 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.007067, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.947429, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.181138, "qValue": 0.103369, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 6, 7, 8, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 6, 7, 8, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.168652, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.235918, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 6, "end": 8, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "6~8개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.079611, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.893663, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.011396, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.935865, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.011108, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.935865, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.01546, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.935865, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.062548, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.893663, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.048302, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.923767, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.035564, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.923926, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.115617, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.677668, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.069365, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.893663, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.002855, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9636, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.011955, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.935865, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.098904, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.69757, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.007067, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.947429, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.065346, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.893663, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.108514, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.677668, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.037391, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.923926, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.030342, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.923926, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.032118, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.923926, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.074008, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.893663, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.034103, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.923926, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.049721, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.923767, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.014709, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.935865, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.023555, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.935865, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.052082, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.923767, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.181138, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.103369, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.30456, "rawPValue": 0.017010882822932175, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.322866, "adjustedPValue": 0.022202510220302552, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.075601, "rawPValue": 0.38892689698006244, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.066555, "adjustedPValue": 0.4483182229106526, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.148692, "rawPValue": 0.22979725832257877, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.137074, "adjustedPValue": 0.2686757138825328, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.126685, "qValue": null, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.197484, "qValue": 0.07561, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.091095, "qValue": 0.114753, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.090522, "qValue": 0.160232, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.138158, "qValue": 0.112023, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.168652, "qValue": 0.07561, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.117586, "qValue": 0.042453, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.129936, "qValue": 0.07561, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.086355, "qValue": 0.114753, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.082187, "qValue": 0.211184, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.12815, "qValue": 0.1404, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.235918, "qValue": 0.092817, "n": 248 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.071255, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.399298, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.154895, "qValue": 0.086926, "n": 266, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.118452, "peakHorizon": 6, "peakBeta": 0.186042, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 9, "length": 9, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.011139, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.92924, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.114719, "qValue": 0.544698, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 6 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 6 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.143308, "peakHorizon": 6, "peakBeta": 0.166065, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 2, "length": 2, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.000234, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.996994, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.151142, "qValue": 0.345985, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.126406, "peakHorizon": 6, "peakBeta": 0.18848, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 5, "end": 8, "length": 4, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.007067, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.947429, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.181138, "qValue": 0.103369, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 6, 7, 8, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 6, 7, 8, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.168652, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.235918, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 6, "end": 8, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" } ] }, { "id": "seoul-cap-kospi", "regionId": "seoul", "regionLabel": "서울", "label": "서울 주택시가총액 ↔ KOSPI 시가총액", "stockSeries": "kospiMarketCapReturn", "housingSeries": "housingMarketCapReturn", "sampleStart": "2003-12-31", "sampleEnd": "2026-07-31", "sampleObservations": 272, "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": 0.060417, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.501307, "rawN": 272, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.095432, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.388111, "adjustedN": 261 }, "bestStockLeadRaw": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.191147, "qValue": 0.040064, "n": 270, "significant10pct": true }, "bestStockLeadAdjusted": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.205874, "qValue": 0.027139, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.206369, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.32236, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 4, "end": 12, "length": 9, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "4~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "lagConvention": "positive lag = stock at month t versus housing at month t+lag", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "rawCorrelation": -0.058418, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.510515, "rawN": 260, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.038139, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.596914, "adjustedN": 249, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "rawCorrelation": 0.026219, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.841628, "rawN": 261, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.06792, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.458744, "adjustedN": 250, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "rawCorrelation": 0.09812, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.257026, "rawN": 262, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.088662, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.388111, "adjustedN": 251, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "rawCorrelation": -0.018668, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.867237, "rawN": 263, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.018447, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.802857, "adjustedN": 252, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "rawCorrelation": 0.009147, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.882403, "rawN": 264, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.159624, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.076387, "adjustedN": 253, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "rawCorrelation": 0.06961, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.431372, "rawN": 265, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.077828, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.416176, "adjustedN": 254, 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"horizon": 10, "beta": 0.105699, "qValue": 0.099855, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.137617, "qValue": 0.146126, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.157759, "qValue": 0.082816, "n": 258 } ] }, "domestic": { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.098572, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.201482, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.14739, "qValue": 0.076779, "n": 270, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "통계적으로 검출됐지만 관계가 매우 약함", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.136489, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.210469, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 4, "end": 6, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "4~6개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.024504, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.723037, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.063963, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.421212, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.11491, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.175767, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.006115, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.921375, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.08883, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.250103, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.152732, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.076779, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.174144, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.057593, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.170744, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.057593, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.164638, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.057593, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.102297, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.199032, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.058826, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.423581, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": 0.033899, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.641252, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.098572, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.201482, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.136235, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.103786, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.14739, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.076779, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.118883, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.160802, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.102033, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.199032, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.10333, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.199032, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.083022, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.276584, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.033253, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.641252, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.077291, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.309803, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.059205, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.423581, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.048565, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.516363, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.096078, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.217046, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.132777, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.115514, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.177178, "rawPValue": 0.17193455886499787, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.012368, "adjustedPValue": 0.9246325978959984, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.103388, "rawPValue": 0.23811713559081024, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.057687, "adjustedPValue": 0.5111714424123405, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.25323, "rawPValue": 0.026277297595532337, "rawN": 77, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.135883, "adjustedPValue": 0.23866223784710228, "adjustedN": 77 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.060536, "qValue": 0.101082, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.09369, "qValue": 0.101082, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.077544, "qValue": 0.163282, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.107547, "qValue": 0.099032, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.136489, "qValue": 0.058644, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.140986, "qValue": 0.058644, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.071723, "qValue": 0.199984, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.111712, "qValue": 0.079428, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.115838, "qValue": 0.058644, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.116704, "qValue": 0.127607, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.210469, "qValue": 0.058644, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.194283, "qValue": 0.058644, "n": 258 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.130548, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.064593, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.168077, "qValue": 0.034588, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.148466, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.232834, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 8, "end": 12, "length": 5, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "8~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.014534, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.819493, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.096171, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179714, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.134666, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.064593, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.023013, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.746036, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.14356, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.064593, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.213997, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.007446, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.203252, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.009159, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.194042, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.011335, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.214914, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.007446, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.139205, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.064593, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.077206, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.256652, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": 0.04557, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.504772, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.130548, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.064593, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.152251, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.049969, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.163699, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.034588, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.130504, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.064593, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.138453, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.064593, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.121542, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.086823, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.106817, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.130459, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.059499, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.391998, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.115308, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.104818, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.093849, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.180741, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.083406, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.234757, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.134013, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.064593, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.168077, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.034588, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.26083, "rawPValue": 0.04232636104020755, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.26067, "adjustedPValue": 0.06749750416605445, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.058817, "rawPValue": 0.5029142845903729, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.062599, "adjustedPValue": 0.475806261021278, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.147595, "rawPValue": 0.23329243720375503, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.137197, "adjustedPValue": 0.26824372986249306, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.08412, "qValue": 0.071707, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.123638, "qValue": 0.081237, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.090132, "qValue": 0.100097, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.144894, "qValue": 0.067289, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.168108, "qValue": 0.047067, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.170546, "qValue": 0.067289, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.107578, "qValue": 0.100097, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.151418, "qValue": 0.071587, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.129541, "qValue": 0.071587, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.145514, "qValue": 0.071587, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.232834, "qValue": 0.047067, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.230838, "qValue": 0.047067, "n": 248 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.095432, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.388111, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.205874, "qValue": 0.027139, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.206369, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.32236, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 4, "end": 12, "length": 9, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "4~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": 0.038139, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.596914, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.06792, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.458744, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.088662, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.388111, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.018447, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.802857, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.159624, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.076387, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.077828, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.416176, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.077713, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.416176, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.163065, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.076387, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.094028, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.388111, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.052881, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.529088, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.013428, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.829714, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.048175, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.549032, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.095432, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.388111, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.06295, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.458744, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.063253, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.458744, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.052382, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.529088, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.092103, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.388111, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.039536, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.596914, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.068468, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.458744, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.040455, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.596914, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.100908, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.388111, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.086554, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.388111, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.09824, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.388111, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.158266, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.076387, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.205874, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.027139, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.26083, "rawPValue": 0.04232636104020755, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.26067, "adjustedPValue": 0.06749750416605445, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.058817, "rawPValue": 0.5029142845903729, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.06196, "adjustedPValue": 0.4803252152153787, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.147595, "rawPValue": 0.23329243720375503, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.225716, "adjustedPValue": 0.06627304222230616, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.092697, "qValue": 0.998723, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.146952, "qValue": 0.140836, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.106263, "qValue": 0.17073, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.205855, "qValue": 0.003543, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.206369, "qValue": 0.001498, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.186151, "qValue": 0.006698, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.140692, "qValue": 0.03423, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.211321, "qValue": 0.013986, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.198555, "qValue": 0.004935, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.225088, "qValue": 0.003543, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.32236, "qValue": 0.001498, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.316144, "qValue": 0.003218, "n": 248 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.060417, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.501307, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.191147, "qValue": 0.040064, "n": 270, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.131074, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.157759, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 10, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.098572, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.201482, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.14739, "qValue": 0.076779, "n": 270, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.136489, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.210469, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 4, "end": 6, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.130548, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.064593, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.168077, "qValue": 0.034588, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.148466, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.232834, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 8, "end": 12, "length": 5, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.095432, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.388111, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.205874, "qValue": 0.027139, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.206369, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.32236, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 4, "end": 12, "length": 9, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정" } ] }, { "id": "seoul-cap-kosdaq", "regionId": "seoul", "regionLabel": "서울", "label": "서울 주택시가총액 ↔ KOSDAQ 시가총액", "stockSeries": "kosdaqMarketCapReturn", "housingSeries": "housingMarketCapReturn", "sampleStart": "2003-12-31", 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"periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.30456, "rawPValue": 0.017010862888713063, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.322866, "adjustedPValue": 0.022202457921635044, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.075601, "rawPValue": 0.3889271009533402, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.066555, "adjustedPValue": 0.44831815526768726, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.065845, "rawPValue": 0.5965321530598782, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.174754, "adjustedPValue": 0.15723940984071524, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.125876, "qValue": 0.998867, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.181331, "qValue": 0.08735, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.085298, "qValue": 0.156242, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.082897, "qValue": 0.200636, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.12728, "qValue": 0.132451, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.15696, "qValue": 0.071831, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.107002, "qValue": 0.071831, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.118029, "qValue": 0.071831, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.071002, "qValue": 0.176818, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.082434, "qValue": 0.200636, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.130667, "qValue": 0.132451, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.216434, "qValue": 0.109612, "n": 248 } ], "stages": { "raw": { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.051343, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.554158, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.153891, "qValue": 0.141742, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", 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2, "correlation": 0.153891, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.141742, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.124035, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.210413, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.085316, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.369954, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.117821, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.227067, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.138897, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179265, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.076998, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.369954, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.079233, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.369954, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.038463, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.607485, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.040831, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.607485, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.038881, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.607485, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.102313, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.345695, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.202738, "rawPValue": 0.11711472577102677, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.202738, "adjustedPValue": 0.11711472577102677, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.128218, "rawPValue": 0.14287854934763008, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.128218, "adjustedPValue": 0.14287854934763008, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.19328, "rawPValue": 0.0921423055057247, "rawN": 77, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.19328, "adjustedPValue": 0.0921423055057247, "adjustedN": 77 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.105327, "qValue": 0.023859, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.17078, "qValue": 0.025343, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.136809, "qValue": 0.028419, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.097812, "qValue": 0.092142, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.129844, "qValue": 0.041339, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.161912, "qValue": 0.025343, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.096144, "qValue": 0.029872, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.090963, "qValue": 0.02788, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.059447, "qValue": 0.134868, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.058087, "qValue": 0.278889, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.062647, "qValue": 0.424758, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.123068, "qValue": 0.202318, "n": 258 } ] }, "domestic": { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.007509, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.94737, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.11768, "qValue": 0.667873, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.082563, "peakHorizon": 1, "peakBeta": 0.082563, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 1, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "통계적으로 검출됐지만 양(+) 미래반응이 매우 작음", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.17006, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.149455, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.066762, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.78488, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.029691, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.918906, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.058027, "pValue": null, 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"pValue": null, "qValue": 0.94737, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.077618, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.724098, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.11768, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.667873, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.0782, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.724098, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.038193, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.918906, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.049835, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.869515, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.067655, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.78488, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.002785, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.964007, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.027061, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.918906, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.030995, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.918906, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.015966, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.94737, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.007252, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.94737, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.097484, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.724098, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.202738, "rawPValue": 0.11711472577102677, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.058428, "adjustedPValue": 0.6546756532710325, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.128218, "rawPValue": 0.14287854934763008, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.125285, "adjustedPValue": 0.15232320943425742, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.19328, "rawPValue": 0.0921423055057247, "rawN": 77, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.113585, "adjustedPValue": 0.3253179249717992, "adjustedN": 77 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.082563, "qValue": 0.070321, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.130557, "qValue": 0.143634, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.071514, "qValue": 0.289005, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.050052, "qValue": 0.428026, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.093297, "qValue": 0.401749, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.12604, "qValue": 0.228035, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.044454, "qValue": 0.428026, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.048987, "qValue": 0.426501, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.013701, "qValue": 0.751001, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.020543, "qValue": 0.751001, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.07386, "qValue": 0.428026, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.128662, "qValue": 0.426501, "n": 258 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.024502, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.788153, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.132155, "qValue": 0.233368, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.106483, "peakHorizon": 1, "peakBeta": 0.106483, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 1, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "1개월 일부 시점의 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.157582, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.233368, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.051416, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.653558, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.031831, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.788153, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.042972, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.731013, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.019864, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.81869, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.062744, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.613921, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.065365, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.613921, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.114854, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.332712, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.135257, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.233368, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.070893, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.613921, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.030865, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.788153, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.052747, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.653558, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.024502, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.788153, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.09862, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.469365, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.132155, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.233368, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.076998, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.613921, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.063173, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.613921, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.062957, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.613921, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.087592, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.582701, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.027518, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.788153, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.052016, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.653558, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.00719, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.90958, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.008665, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.90958, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.028271, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.788153, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.13203, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.233368, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.202738, "rawPValue": 0.11711472577102677, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.184743, "adjustedPValue": 0.19901009973662437, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.128218, "rawPValue": 0.14287854934763008, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.08726, "adjustedPValue": 0.31978156303265165, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.19328, "rawPValue": 0.0921423055057247, "rawN": 77, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.123143, "adjustedPValue": 0.2859863531643934, "adjustedN": 77 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.106483, "qValue": 0.059636, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.157924, "qValue": 0.157761, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.083181, "qValue": 0.157761, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.082422, "qValue": 0.279305, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.12424, "qValue": 0.172424, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.152442, "qValue": 0.157761, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.087351, "qValue": 0.157761, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.090688, "qValue": 0.157761, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.038524, "qValue": 0.468655, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.04333, "qValue": 0.496639, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.092665, "qValue": 0.279305, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.170997, "qValue": 0.172424, "n": 248 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.024958, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.934532, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.19013, "qValue": 0.064748, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 6, 7, 8 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 6, 7, 8 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.137494, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.181331, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 6, "end": 8, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "6~8개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.072776, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789279, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.002563, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.967842, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.008713, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.967842, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.003928, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.967842, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.074173, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789279, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.052194, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.871172, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.043234, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.871172, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.123258, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.610493, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.062131, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.833318, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.009671, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.967842, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.011554, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.967842, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.107488, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.697124, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.024958, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.934532, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.082556, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789279, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.096036, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.769747, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.037433, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.871172, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.031624, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.902687, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.023332, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.934532, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.076257, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.789279, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.040738, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.871172, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.045993, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.871172, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.008197, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.967842, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.037191, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.871172, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.061436, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.833318, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.19013, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.064748, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.30456, "rawPValue": 0.017010862888713063, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.322866, "adjustedPValue": 0.022202457921635044, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.075601, "rawPValue": 0.3889271009533402, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.066555, "adjustedPValue": 0.44831815526768726, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.065845, "rawPValue": 0.5965321530598782, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.174754, "adjustedPValue": 0.15723940984071524, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.125876, "qValue": 0.998867, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.181331, "qValue": 0.08735, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.085298, "qValue": 0.156242, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.082897, "qValue": 0.200636, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.12728, "qValue": 0.132451, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.15696, "qValue": 0.071831, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.107002, "qValue": 0.071831, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.118029, "qValue": 0.071831, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.071002, "qValue": 0.176818, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.082434, "qValue": 0.200636, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.130667, "qValue": 0.132451, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.216434, "qValue": 0.109612, "n": 248 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.051343, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.554158, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.153891, "qValue": 0.141742, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.117585, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.17078, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 8, "length": 8, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.007509, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.94737, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.11768, "qValue": 0.667873, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.082563, "peakHorizon": 1, "peakBeta": 0.082563, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 1, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.024502, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.788153, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.132155, "qValue": 0.233368, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.106483, "peakHorizon": 1, "peakBeta": 0.106483, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 1, "length": 1, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.024958, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.934532, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.19013, "qValue": 0.064748, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 6, 7, 8 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 6, 7, 8 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.137494, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.181331, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 6, "end": 8, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정" } ] }, { "id": "capital_region-hpi-kospi", "regionId": "capital_region", "regionLabel": "수도권", "label": "수도권 주택가격지수 ↔ KOSPI", "stockSeries": "kospiIndexReturn", "housingSeries": "housingPriceIndexReturn", "sampleStart": "2003-12-31", "sampleEnd": "2026-07-31", "sampleObservations": 272, "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": -0.003722, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.951273, "rawN": 272, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.052595, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.552, "adjustedN": 261 }, "bestStockLeadRaw": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.163612, "qValue": 0.08294, "n": 260, "significant10pct": true }, "bestStockLeadAdjusted": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.187079, "qValue": 0.076064, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.191815, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.324028, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 12, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "lagConvention": "positive lag = stock at month t versus housing at month t+lag", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "rawCorrelation": -0.115104, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.133024, "rawN": 260, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.00701, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.912361, "adjustedN": 249, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "rawCorrelation": -0.051999, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.592375, "rawN": 261, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.04069, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.652385, "adjustedN": 250, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "rawCorrelation": 0.01884, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.865326, "rawN": 262, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.07195, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.455859, "adjustedN": 251, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "rawCorrelation": -0.04147, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.667274, "rawN": 263, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.011079, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.912361, "adjustedN": 252, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "rawCorrelation": -0.034239, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.724604, "rawN": 264, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.121818, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.330994, "adjustedN": 253, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "rawCorrelation": -0.005838, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.951273, "rawN": 265, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.098402, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.420496, "adjustedN": 254, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "rawCorrelation": 0.011186, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.930335, "rawN": 266, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.102988, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.420496, "adjustedN": 255, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "rawCorrelation": -0.027049, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.785646, "rawN": 267, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.135722, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.249437, "adjustedN": 256, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "rawCorrelation": -0.040692, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.667274, "rawN": 268, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.101303, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.420496, "adjustedN": 257, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "rawCorrelation": -0.052658, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.592375, "rawN": 269, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.075479, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.455859, "adjustedN": 258, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "rawCorrelation": -0.085329, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.310652, "rawN": 270, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.007286, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.912361, "adjustedN": 259, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "rawCorrelation": -0.082309, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.310652, "rawN": 271, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.031185, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.734165, "adjustedN": 260, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": -0.003722, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.951273, "rawN": 272, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.052595, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.552, "adjustedN": 261, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "rawCorrelation": 0.080507, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.310652, "rawN": 271, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.053926, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.552, "adjustedN": 260, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.132587, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.108227, "rawN": 270, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.073881, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.455859, "adjustedN": 259, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.139839, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.108227, "rawN": 269, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.088285, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.455859, "adjustedN": 258, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "rawCorrelation": 0.132352, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.108227, "rawN": 268, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.072756, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.455859, "adjustedN": 257, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "rawCorrelation": 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"qValue": 0.013358, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.145376, "qValue": 0.021323, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.163189, "qValue": 0.078866, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.177961, "qValue": 0.063336, "n": 258 } ] }, "domestic": { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.039223, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.658462, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.146525, "qValue": 0.451929, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.141033, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.225982, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 2, "end": 12, "length": 11, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "2~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.065004, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.007267, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.919638, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.036806, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.658462, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.017633, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.843411, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.037422, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.658462, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.065731, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.080464, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.068276, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.066173, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.043206, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.658462, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.006169, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.919638, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.019412, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.843411, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.039223, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.658462, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.074097, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.098014, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.102174, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.085614, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.073616, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.072932, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.059654, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.490238, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.079341, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.071205, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.066156, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.108824, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.463106, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.146525, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.451929, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.276283, "rawPValue": 0.03113532385141273, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.162153, "adjustedPValue": 0.21183346135316444, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.063814, "rawPValue": 0.46726862864489177, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.016297, "adjustedPValue": 0.8528617861890126, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.194128, "rawPValue": 0.11546059761543727, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.097557, "adjustedPValue": 0.4322270327154646, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.038576, "qValue": 0.146973, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.07629, "qValue": 0.08003, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.091676, "qValue": 0.08003, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.115021, "qValue": 0.031786, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.141033, "qValue": 0.0242, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.157837, "qValue": 0.031786, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.12552, "qValue": 0.031786, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.140615, "qValue": 0.0242, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.147458, "qValue": 0.01141, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.157286, "qValue": 0.0242, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.225982, "qValue": 0.0242, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.218096, "qValue": 0.031786, "n": 258 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.064223, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.396448, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.166408, "qValue": 0.212813, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.165955, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.256236, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 12, "length": 12, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "1~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.045248, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.568126, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.015895, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.872318, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.051612, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.519449, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.001438, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981884, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.084241, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.286334, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.12148, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.26592, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.109171, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.26592, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.094283, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.275946, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.117631, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.26592, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.075877, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.330177, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.001816, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.981884, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.019696, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.854466, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.064223, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.396448, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.08279, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.286334, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.107201, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.26592, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.118633, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.26592, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.111162, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.26592, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.095422, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.275946, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.095938, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.275946, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.071469, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.356153, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.100872, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.275946, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.091694, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.282041, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.086823, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.286334, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.136596, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.26592, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.166408, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.212813, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.276283, "rawPValue": 0.03113532385141273, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.24243, "adjustedPValue": 0.08983075503130754, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.063814, "rawPValue": 0.46726862864489177, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.063967, "adjustedPValue": 0.46619857675294957, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.194128, "rawPValue": 0.11546059761543727, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.110145, "adjustedPValue": 0.3749113592692112, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.057909, "qValue": 0.074412, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.096839, "qValue": 0.074412, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.106563, "qValue": 0.071364, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.14414, "qValue": 0.026095, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.172681, "qValue": 0.026095, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.188849, "qValue": 0.026113, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.158024, "qValue": 0.026113, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.171061, "qValue": 0.026113, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.16085, "qValue": 0.026095, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.183201, "qValue": 0.026095, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.253516, "qValue": 0.026095, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.256236, "qValue": 0.026095, "n": 248 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.052595, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.552, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.187079, "qValue": 0.076064, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.191815, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.324028, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 12, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "3~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": 0.00701, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.912361, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.04069, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.652385, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.07195, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.455859, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.011079, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.912361, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.121818, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.330994, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.098402, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.420496, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.102988, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.420496, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.135722, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.249437, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.101303, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.420496, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.075479, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.455859, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.007286, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.912361, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.031185, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.734165, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.052595, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.552, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.053926, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.552, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.073881, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.455859, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.088285, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.455859, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.072756, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.455859, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.055058, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.552, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.044938, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.624949, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.02252, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.819261, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.074215, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.455859, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.06924, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.455859, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.084963, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.455859, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.153482, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.189254, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.187079, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.076064, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.276283, "rawPValue": 0.03113532385141273, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.24243, "adjustedPValue": 0.08983075503130754, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.063814, "rawPValue": 0.46726862864489177, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.047261, "adjustedPValue": 0.5904937985141681, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.194128, "rawPValue": 0.11546059761543727, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.10656, "adjustedPValue": 0.3907460027935187, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.070326, "qValue": null, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.130673, "qValue": null, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.13918, "qValue": 0.063517, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.179032, "qValue": 0.003418, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.201315, "qValue": 0.00257, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.184889, "qValue": 0.013209, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.158533, "qValue": 0.013209, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.186945, "qValue": 0.013209, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.196685, "qValue": 0.005072, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.236648, "qValue": 0.003418, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.320149, "qValue": 0.003418, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.324028, "qValue": 0.005175, "n": 248 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.003722, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.951273, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.163612, "qValue": 0.08294, "n": 260, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.144756, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.177961, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 12, "length": 12, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.039223, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.658462, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.146525, "qValue": 0.451929, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.141033, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.225982, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 2, "end": 12, "length": 11, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.064223, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.396448, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.166408, "qValue": 0.212813, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.165955, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.256236, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 12, "length": 12, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.052595, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.552, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.187079, "qValue": 0.076064, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.191815, "peakHorizon": 12, "peakBeta": 0.324028, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 3, "end": 12, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정" } ] }, { "id": "capital_region-hpi-kosdaq", "regionId": "capital_region", "regionLabel": "수도권", "label": "수도권 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"n": 79 } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.318605, "rawPValue": 0.01233224800808966, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.31182, "adjustedPValue": 0.02749527939533018, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.060067, "rawPValue": 0.49387004390845585, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.017678, "adjustedPValue": 0.8405547516163709, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.150624, "rawPValue": 0.2237311474280252, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.046014, "adjustedPValue": 0.7115700316597016, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.088741, "qValue": null, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.158106, "qValue": 0.116274, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.109889, "qValue": 0.135237, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.072395, "qValue": 0.255622, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.099157, "qValue": 0.222829, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.126134, "qValue": 0.165199, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.096632, "qValue": 0.135237, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.08001, "qValue": 0.177826, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.050191, "qValue": 0.255622, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.069725, "qValue": 0.248522, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.13318, "qValue": 0.141522, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.230155, "qValue": 0.141522, "n": 248 } ], "stages": { "raw": { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.063724, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.433841, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.150649, "qValue": 0.121677, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.121647, "peakHorizon": 6, "peakBeta": 0.173146, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 10, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "1~10개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.16431, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.121677, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.090805, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.27591, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.017505, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.810354, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.018766, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.810354, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.032239, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.749149, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": -0.020242, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.810354, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": -0.008824, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.8861, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": -0.029676, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.749149, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": -0.056157, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.499718, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": -0.102324, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.234925, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.124689, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.145089, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.145793, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.121677, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.063724, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.433841, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.041542, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.652463, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.129816, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.144291, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.128874, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.144291, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.093913, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.275866, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.11936, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.160603, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.150649, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.121677, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.110102, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.204351, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.092845, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.275866, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.06661, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.433841, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.069878, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.432873, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.082454, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.328918, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.144833, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.121677, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.108559, "rawPValue": 0.40496094795792914, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.108559, "adjustedPValue": 0.40496094795792914, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.161239, "rawPValue": 0.06475084743450545, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.161239, "adjustedPValue": 0.06475084743450545, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.317858, "rawPValue": 0.006137167131021633, "rawN": 73, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.317858, "adjustedPValue": 0.006137167131021633, "adjustedN": 73 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.077917, "qValue": 0.023582, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.150128, "qValue": 0.020156, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.147666, "qValue": 0.023582, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.114644, "qValue": 0.040016, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.139264, "qValue": 0.034899, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.173146, "qValue": 0.023582, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.128649, "qValue": 0.023582, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.107466, "qValue": 0.028348, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.08773, "qValue": 0.040016, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.088055, "qValue": 0.071232, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.093173, "qValue": 0.192431, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.15242, "qValue": 0.134962, "n": 258 } ] }, "domestic": { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.006164, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9577, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.130125, "qValue": 0.51562, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.098332, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.120302, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 3, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "통계적으로 검출됐지만 양(+) 미래반응이 매우 작음", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.126678, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.51562, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.040406, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.001166, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.985012, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.006859, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9577, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.025365, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.946708, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.038951, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.051217, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.069301, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.062191, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.015832, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9577, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.008611, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9577, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.052856, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.006164, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9577, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.060655, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.108552, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.624698, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.095427, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.740193, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.04642, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.036869, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.063998, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.03054, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.030988, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.012362, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9577, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.006527, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9577, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.033851, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.91273, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.130125, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.51562, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.318605, "rawPValue": 0.01233224800808966, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.28659, "adjustedPValue": 0.025140645014318595, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.060067, "rawPValue": 0.49387004390845585, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.046058, "adjustedPValue": 0.5999904542082851, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.150624, "rawPValue": 0.2237311474280252, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.07097, "adjustedPValue": 0.5681993636898581, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.060258, "qValue": 0.093305, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.120302, "qValue": 0.09209, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.098332, "qValue": 0.093305, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.065136, "qValue": 0.249852, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.096024, "qValue": 0.232455, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.131468, "qValue": 0.214026, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.077605, "qValue": 0.232455, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.058347, "qValue": 0.249852, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.033619, "qValue": 0.403814, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.043617, "qValue": 0.403814, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.09657, "qValue": 0.232455, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.162795, "qValue": 0.232455, "n": 258 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.018289, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.915123, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.151822, "qValue": 0.412596, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 7 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 7 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.113895, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.141371, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 3, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "1~3개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.099159, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.494173, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.025427, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.861362, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.003997, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.986518, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.029411, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.844956, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.076394, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.523372, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.089975, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.523372, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.078277, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.523372, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.103084, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.494173, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.12145, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.494173, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.064453, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.566069, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.001055, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.986518, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.062992, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.566069, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.018289, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.915123, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.074654, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.523372, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.116989, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.494173, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.101252, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.494173, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.062663, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.566069, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.054817, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.637379, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.082488, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.523372, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.045738, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.689756, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.042932, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.689756, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.002893, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.986518, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.011049, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.979227, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.045513, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.689756, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.151822, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.412596, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.318605, "rawPValue": 0.01233224800808966, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.31182, "adjustedPValue": 0.02749527939533018, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.060067, "rawPValue": 0.49387004390845585, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.073098, "adjustedPValue": 0.40486519422040795, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.150624, "rawPValue": 0.2237311474280252, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.047197, "adjustedPValue": 0.7044887282732293, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.077086, "qValue": 0.080118, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.141371, "qValue": 0.080118, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.112169, "qValue": 0.080118, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.090346, "qValue": 0.233229, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.127848, "qValue": 0.135836, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.158146, "qValue": 0.123494, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.115621, "qValue": 0.08136, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.090715, "qValue": 0.135836, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.050086, "qValue": 0.305404, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.057562, "qValue": 0.305404, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.111994, "qValue": 0.135836, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.198648, "qValue": 0.135836, "n": 248 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.00743, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.954202, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.180342, "qValue": 0.107632, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "projectionJudgement": "조건부 미래반응 회귀에서 유의한 관계 확인 불가", "judgement": "조정 후 두 모형 모두 뚜렷한 예측관계 확인 불가", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.084999, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.026878, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.916642, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.003643, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.954202, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.0211, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.916642, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.085324, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.071237, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.064818, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.11665, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.092197, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.036196, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.916642, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.016525, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.916642, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.081256, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.00743, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.954202, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.061772, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.096, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.069517, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.03309, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.916642, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.021145, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.916642, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.045948, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.894386, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.016127, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.916642, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.023832, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.916642, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.004822, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.954202, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.015525, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.916642, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.069356, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.668965, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.180342, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.107632, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.318605, "rawPValue": 0.01233224800808966, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.31182, "adjustedPValue": 0.02749527939533018, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.060067, "rawPValue": 0.49387004390845585, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.017678, "adjustedPValue": 0.8405547516163709, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.150624, "rawPValue": 0.2237311474280252, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.046014, "adjustedPValue": 0.7115700316597016, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.088741, "qValue": null, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.158106, "qValue": 0.116274, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.109889, "qValue": 0.135237, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.072395, "qValue": 0.255622, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.099157, "qValue": 0.222829, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.126134, "qValue": 0.165199, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.096632, "qValue": 0.135237, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.08001, "qValue": 0.177826, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.050191, "qValue": 0.255622, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.069725, "qValue": 0.248522, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.13318, "qValue": 0.141522, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.230155, "qValue": 0.141522, "n": 248 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.063724, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.433841, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.150649, "qValue": 0.121677, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.121647, "peakHorizon": 6, "peakBeta": 0.173146, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 10, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.006164, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.9577, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.130125, "qValue": 0.51562, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.098332, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.120302, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 3, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.018289, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.915123, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.151822, "qValue": 0.412596, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 7 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 7 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.113895, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.141371, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 3, "length": 3, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.00743, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.954202, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.180342, "qValue": 0.107632, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "judgement": "조정 후 두 모형 모두 뚜렷한 예측관계 확인 불가" } ] }, { "id": "capital_region-cap-kospi", "regionId": "capital_region", "regionLabel": "수도권", "label": "수도권 주택시가총액 ↔ KOSPI 시가총액", "stockSeries": "kospiMarketCapReturn", "housingSeries": "housingMarketCapReturn", "sampleStart": "2003-12-31", "sampleEnd": "2026-07-31", "sampleObservations": 272, "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": 0.03385, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.757678, "rawN": 272, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.07925, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.38199, "adjustedN": 261 }, "bestStockLeadRaw": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.165144, "qValue": 0.066488, "n": 270, "significant10pct": true }, "bestStockLeadAdjusted": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.196191, "qValue": 0.046684, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.193636, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.328139, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 2, "end": 12, "length": 11, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "2~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "lagConvention": "positive lag = stock at month t versus housing at month t+lag", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "rawCorrelation": -0.083611, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.344106, "rawN": 260, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.020941, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.806845, "adjustedN": 249, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "rawCorrelation": -0.0081, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.925557, "rawN": 261, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.058247, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.479219, "adjustedN": 250, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "rawCorrelation": 0.062752, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.519335, "rawN": 262, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.079229, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.38199, "adjustedN": 251, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "rawCorrelation": -0.006938, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.925557, "rawN": 263, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.015928, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.808549, "adjustedN": 252, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "rawCorrelation": 0.005778, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.925557, "rawN": 264, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.142819, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.144261, "adjustedN": 253, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "rawCorrelation": 0.043655, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.709112, "rawN": 265, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.104946, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.353046, "adjustedN": 254, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "rawCorrelation": 0.075834, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.388685, "rawN": 266, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.113521, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.35168, "adjustedN": 255, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "rawCorrelation": 0.04044, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.709112, "rawN": 267, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.153554, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.115961, "adjustedN": 256, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "rawCorrelation": 0.01844, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.909285, "rawN": 268, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.10318, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.353046, "adjustedN": 257, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "rawCorrelation": -0.008926, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.925557, "rawN": 269, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.077638, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.38199, "adjustedN": 258, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "rawCorrelation": -0.031516, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.757678, "rawN": 270, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.015128, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.808549, "adjustedN": 259, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "rawCorrelation": -0.040153, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.709112, "rawN": 271, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.035286, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.648993, "adjustedN": 260, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": 0.03385, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.757678, "rawN": 272, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.07925, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.38199, "adjustedN": 261, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "rawCorrelation": 0.11553, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.173001, "rawN": 271, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.060469, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.479219, "adjustedN": 260, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "rawCorrelation": 0.165144, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.066488, "rawN": 270, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.064707, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.468034, "adjustedN": 259, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "rawCorrelation": 0.155518, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.066488, "rawN": 269, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.080888, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.38199, "adjustedN": 258, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "rawCorrelation": 0.140347, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.089789, "rawN": 268, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.080743, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.38199, "adjustedN": 257, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "rawCorrelation": 0.164545, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.066488, "rawN": 267, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.043415, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.611514, "adjustedN": 256, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.158029, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.066488, "rawN": 266, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.057056, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.479219, "adjustedN": 255, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "rawCorrelation": 0.110156, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.173001, "rawN": 265, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.036697, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.648993, "adjustedN": 254, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "rawCorrelation": 0.114359, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.173001, "rawN": 264, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.082133, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.38199, "adjustedN": 253, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "rawCorrelation": 0.107086, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.173001, "rawN": 263, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.071575, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.429374, "adjustedN": 252, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "rawCorrelation": 0.107288, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.173001, "rawN": 262, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.093448, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.38199, "adjustedN": 251, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "rawCorrelation": 0.132143, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.117307, "rawN": 261, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.158476, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.115961, "adjustedN": 250, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.1486, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.082449, "rawN": 260, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.196191, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.046684, "adjustedN": 249, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false } 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"adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.062668, "rawPValue": 0.47531530831493485, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.023616, "adjustedPValue": 0.7880919075280691, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.145928, "rawPValue": 0.23867086622623251, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.055837, "adjustedPValue": 0.6535777796184259, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.042835, "qValue": 0.132042, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.084444, "qValue": 0.065239, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.085296, "qValue": 0.115597, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.104378, "qValue": 0.065239, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.131215, "qValue": 0.056246, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.140842, "qValue": 0.065239, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.096749, "qValue": 0.102337, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.118699, "qValue": 0.056246, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.122544, "qValue": 0.056246, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.139881, "qValue": 0.056246, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.218436, "qValue": 0.056246, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.204776, "qValue": 0.059505, "n": 258 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.105973, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.147942, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.164074, "qValue": 0.047486, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.145695, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.246865, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 12, "length": 12, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "1~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.011609, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.855374, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.068162, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.339566, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.104419, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.147942, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.04702, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.497185, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.13888, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.085065, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.186008, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.024346, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.190533, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.024346, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.175434, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.03048, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.188228, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.024346, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.126514, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.103405, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.059883, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.383063, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": 0.029317, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.664551, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.105973, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.147942, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.121879, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.103405, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.142648, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.085065, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.134636, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.085065, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.124591, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.103405, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.109941, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.147942, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.103055, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.147942, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.067308, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.339566, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.104936, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.147942, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.085879, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.241863, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.083264, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.248106, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.137918, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.085065, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.164074, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.047486, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.271316, "rawPValue": 0.03442503986620769, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.248207, "adjustedPValue": 0.08220967471268785, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.062668, "rawPValue": 0.47531530831493485, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.06308, "adjustedPValue": 0.472410928826966, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.145928, "rawPValue": 0.23867086622623251, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.08584, "adjustedPValue": 0.48976448109166604, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.065384, "qValue": 0.064424, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.10976, "qValue": 0.055916, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.102906, "qValue": 0.075997, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.137989, "qValue": 0.055916, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.166067, "qValue": 0.044255, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.175701, "qValue": 0.055916, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.131602, "qValue": 0.064424, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.1534, "qValue": 0.055916, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.136072, "qValue": 0.055916, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.165165, "qValue": 0.044255, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.246865, "qValue": 0.044255, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.242733, "qValue": 0.044255, "n": 248 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.07925, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.38199, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.196191, "qValue": 0.046684, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.193636, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.328139, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 2, "end": 12, "length": 11, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "2~12개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": 0.020941, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.806845, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": 0.058247, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.479219, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": 0.079229, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.38199, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.015928, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.808549, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.142819, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.144261, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.104946, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.353046, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.113521, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.35168, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.153554, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.115961, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.10318, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.353046, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.077638, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.38199, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.015128, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.808549, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.035286, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.648993, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.07925, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.38199, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.060469, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.479219, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.064707, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.468034, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.080888, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.38199, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.080743, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.38199, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.043415, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.611514, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.057056, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.479219, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.036697, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.648993, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.082133, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.38199, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.071575, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.429374, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.093448, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.38199, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.158476, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.115961, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.196191, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.046684, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.271316, "rawPValue": 0.03442503986620769, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.248207, "adjustedPValue": 0.08220967471268785, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.062668, "rawPValue": 0.47531530831493485, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.051094, "adjustedPValue": 0.5606846410396545, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.145928, "rawPValue": 0.23867086622623251, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.139206, "adjustedPValue": 0.2612294758208656, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.067415, "qValue": null, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.135867, "qValue": 0.08393, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.134521, "qValue": 0.08393, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.19068, "qValue": 0.00251, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.199021, "qValue": 0.001133, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.182159, "qValue": 0.015746, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.153364, "qValue": 0.015746, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.19416, "qValue": 0.012597, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.193636, "qValue": 0.004196, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.235326, "qValue": 0.001133, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.328139, "qValue": 0.001133, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.323843, "qValue": 0.004196, "n": 248 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.03385, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.757678, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.165144, "qValue": 0.066488, "n": 270, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.124915, "peakHorizon": 6, "peakBeta": 0.163938, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 10, "length": 10, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향의 약한 조건부 관계를 함께 지지" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.075639, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.334583, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.140507, "qValue": 0.175343, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.131215, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.218436, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 8, "end": 12, "length": 5, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.105973, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.147942, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.164074, "qValue": 0.047486, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.145695, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.246865, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 12, "length": 12, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.07925, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.38199, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.196191, "qValue": 0.046684, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.193636, "peakHorizon": 11, "peakBeta": 0.328139, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 2, "end": 12, "length": 11, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "두 모형이 같은 방향을 보이지만 고정 시차관계는 기간별 불안정" } ] }, { "id": "capital_region-cap-kosdaq", "regionId": "capital_region", "regionLabel": "수도권", "label": "수도권 주택시가총액 ↔ KOSDAQ 시가총액", "stockSeries": "kosdaqMarketCapReturn", "housingSeries": "housingMarketCapReturn", "sampleStart": "2003-12-31", "sampleEnd": "2026-07-31", "sampleObservations": 272, "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "rawCorrelation": -0.048193, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.595257, "rawN": 272, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.021542, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.911308, "adjustedN": 261 }, "bestStockLeadRaw": { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.145386, "qValue": 0.147182, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLeadAdjusted": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.190394, "qValue": 0.063843, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "projectionJudgement": "조건부 미래반응 회귀에서 유의한 관계 확인 불가", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 관찰되지만 미래반응 회귀에서 재현되지 않음", "lagConvention": "positive lag = stock at month t versus housing at month t+lag", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "rawCorrelation": -0.182788, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.077379, "rawN": 260, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.079056, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.623005, "adjustedN": 249, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "rawCorrelation": -0.100955, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.287977, "rawN": 261, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.011352, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.932891, "adjustedN": 250, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "rawCorrelation": -0.027791, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.711219, "rawN": 262, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.002025, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 0.974537, "adjustedN": 251, "adjustedSignificant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "rawCorrelation": -0.037213, "rawPValue": null, "rawQValue": 0.684946, "rawN": 263, "rawSignificant10pct": false, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.023636, "adjustedPValue": null, "adjustedQValue": 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"lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.316465, "rawPValue": 0.012963854987595703, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.319864, "adjustedPValue": 0.02354803964246832, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.065815, "rawPValue": 0.45338546247151357, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.031237, "adjustedPValue": 0.7221743342614098, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.08435, "rawPValue": 0.49735926356748883, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.089769, "adjustedPValue": 0.47003511563586636, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.10152, "qValue": 0.998551, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.160321, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.101817, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.068575, "qValue": 0.321584, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.100118, "qValue": 0.251018, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.129269, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.093276, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.086183, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.045888, "qValue": 0.321584, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.064998, "qValue": 0.305318, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.132922, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.221827, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 248 } ], "stages": { "raw": { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.048193, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.595257, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.145386, "qValue": 0.147182, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.11779, "peakHorizon": 6, "peakBeta": 0.161354, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 8, "length": 8, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "1~8개월에 이어지는 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.182788, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.077379, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.100955, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.287977, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.027791, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.711219, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.037213, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.684946, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": -0.050475, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.595257, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": -0.029885, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.711219, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": -0.004719, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.938933, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": -0.014672, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.845206, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": -0.033232, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.700082, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": -0.083025, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.360315, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.099526, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.287977, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.124875, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179183, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.048193, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.595257, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.061237, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.525329, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.14436, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.147182, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.131526, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179183, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.090497, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.31707, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.116759, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.202586, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.145386, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.147182, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.094782, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.309441, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.081395, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.360315, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": 0.045933, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.602944, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.055549, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.578917, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.066612, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.506496, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.125611, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.179183, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.112586, "rawPValue": 0.3876494321392673, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.112586, "adjustedPValue": 0.3876494321392673, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.161347, "rawPValue": 0.06456773753821231, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.161347, "adjustedPValue": 0.06456773753821231, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 6, "rawCorrelation": 0.276241, "rawPValue": 0.01799587989819562, "rawN": 73, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.276241, "adjustedPValue": 0.01799587989819562, "adjustedN": 73 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.084215, "qValue": 0.03352, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.153401, "qValue": 0.023539, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.140648, "qValue": 0.03352, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.102214, "qValue": 0.084861, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.127866, "qValue": 0.061674, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.161354, "qValue": 0.039484, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.107713, "qValue": 0.039484, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.089763, "qValue": 0.044117, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.060871, "qValue": 0.122895, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.067645, "qValue": 0.17194, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.077069, "qValue": 0.281245, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.131968, "qValue": 0.194727, "n": 258 } ] }, "domestic": { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.017276, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.118862, "qValue": 0.464404, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.093166, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.12023, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 2, "length": 2, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "통계적으로 검출됐지만 양(+) 미래반응이 매우 작음", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.153747, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.326694, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.058387, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.868622, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.014545, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": -0.013612, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.007069, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.908989, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.030311, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.060402, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.868622, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.090551, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.586153, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.090233, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.586153, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.033708, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.011354, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.036216, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.017276, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.074875, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.782897, "n": 271, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.116574, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.464404, "n": 270, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.093865, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.586153, "n": 269, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.039478, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 268, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.036007, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 267, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.059474, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.868622, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.014544, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 265, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.021805, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 264, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.030016, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 263, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": -0.01404, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 262, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.025445, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.118862, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.464404, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.316465, "rawPValue": 0.012963854987595703, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.285068, "adjustedPValue": 0.025959281039946852, "adjustedN": 61 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.065815, "rawPValue": 0.45338546247151357, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.057941, "adjustedPValue": 0.5093102674712766, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.08435, "rawPValue": 0.49735926356748883, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.029835, "adjustedPValue": 0.8105891671662558, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.066102, "qValue": 0.091855, "n": 269 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.12023, "qValue": 0.091855, "n": 268 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.085294, "qValue": 0.186328, "n": 267 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.048854, "qValue": 0.43995, "n": 266 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.082495, "qValue": 0.377563, "n": 265 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.11581, "qValue": 0.338173, "n": 264 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.052899, "qValue": 0.416955, "n": 263 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.041506, "qValue": 0.419282, "n": 262 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.009974, "qValue": 0.798926, "n": 261 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.028647, "qValue": 0.642083, "n": 260 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.08669, "qValue": 0.377563, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.147551, "qValue": 0.377563, "n": 258 } ] }, "global": { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.032068, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.756687, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.142325, "qValue": 0.244078, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "leadLagJudgement": "외부요인 조정 후 유의한 선행관계 확인 불가", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.115377, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.143874, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 2, "length": 2, "direction": "positive" } }, "projectionJudgement": "1, 2개월 일부 시점의 양(+) 조건부 미래반응", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.124995, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.244078, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.039646, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.746192, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.01, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911188, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.011059, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911188, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.062327, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.67383, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.085246, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.439053, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.090577, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.41453, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.126874, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.244078, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.154074, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.244078, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.090783, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.41453, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": 0.029579, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.756687, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.040207, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.746192, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.032068, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.756687, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.092744, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.41453, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.127231, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.244078, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.097849, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.41453, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.057875, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.683561, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.052426, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.720633, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.079229, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.471191, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.032489, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.756687, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.038966, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.746192, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.013304, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911188, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.004305, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.945894, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.039561, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.746192, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.142325, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.244078, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.316465, "rawPValue": 0.012963854987595703, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.319864, "adjustedPValue": 0.02354803964246832, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.065815, "rawPValue": 0.45338546247151357, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.07897, "adjustedPValue": 0.36808094724064566, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.08435, "rawPValue": 0.49735926356748883, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.042165, "adjustedPValue": 0.7347647740719916, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.086881, "qValue": 0.087775, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.143874, "qValue": 0.087775, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.099983, "qValue": 0.170445, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.075921, "qValue": 0.362723, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.114653, "qValue": 0.195645, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.143991, "qValue": 0.195645, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.092198, "qValue": 0.195645, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.076716, "qValue": 0.195645, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.026868, "qValue": 0.568054, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.042835, "qValue": 0.483248, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.103536, "qValue": 0.195645, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.184025, "qValue": 0.195645, "n": 248 } ] }, "full": { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.021542, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911308, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.190394, "qValue": 0.063843, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "leadLagJudgement": "기간별로 불안정한 조건부 선행관계", "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "projectionJudgement": "조건부 미래반응 회귀에서 유의한 관계 확인 불가", "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 관찰되지만 미래반응 회귀에서 재현되지 않음", "crossCorrelation": [ { "lag": -12, "correlation": -0.079056, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.623005, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -11, "correlation": -0.011352, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.932891, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -10, "correlation": -0.002025, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.974537, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -9, "correlation": 0.023636, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911308, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -8, "correlation": 0.089064, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.623005, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -7, "correlation": 0.074487, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.623005, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -6, "correlation": 0.068742, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.623005, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -5, "correlation": 0.125073, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.569782, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -4, "correlation": 0.091591, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.623005, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -3, "correlation": 0.038938, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911308, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -2, "correlation": -0.013011, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.932891, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": -1, "correlation": -0.087398, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.623005, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.021542, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911308, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 1, "correlation": 0.073716, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.623005, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 2, "correlation": 0.08767, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.623005, "n": 259, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 3, "correlation": 0.061331, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.680134, "n": 258, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 4, "correlation": 0.027727, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911308, "n": 257, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 5, "correlation": 0.012897, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.932891, "n": 256, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.054993, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.734304, "n": 255, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 7, "correlation": 0.02404, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911308, "n": 254, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 8, "correlation": 0.028701, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911308, "n": 253, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 9, "correlation": -0.004925, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.974537, "n": 252, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 10, "correlation": 0.024939, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911308, "n": 251, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 11, "correlation": 0.069794, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.623005, "n": 250, "significant10pct": false }, { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.190394, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.063843, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false } ], "periodLeadCorrelations": [ { "label": "1996~2008", "start": "1996-07-31", "end": "2008-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.316465, "rawPValue": 0.012963854987595703, "rawN": 61, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.319864, "adjustedPValue": 0.02354803964246832, "adjustedN": 50 }, { "label": "2009~2019", "start": "2009-01-31", "end": "2019-12-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": -0.065815, "rawPValue": 0.45338546247151357, "rawN": 132, "adjustedCorrelation": -0.031237, "adjustedPValue": 0.7221743342614098, "adjustedN": 132 }, { "label": "2020~현재", "start": "2020-01-31", "end": "2026-07-31", "lag": 12, "rawCorrelation": 0.08435, "rawPValue": 0.49735926356748883, "rawN": 67, "adjustedCorrelation": 0.089769, "adjustedPValue": 0.47003511563586636, "adjustedN": 67 } ], "localProjection": [ { "horizon": 1, "beta": 0.10152, "qValue": 0.998551, "n": 259 }, { "horizon": 2, "beta": 0.160321, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 258 }, { "horizon": 3, "beta": 0.101817, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 257 }, { "horizon": 4, "beta": 0.068575, "qValue": 0.321584, "n": 256 }, { "horizon": 5, "beta": 0.100118, "qValue": 0.251018, "n": 255 }, { "horizon": 6, "beta": 0.129269, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 254 }, { "horizon": 7, "beta": 0.093276, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 253 }, { "horizon": 8, "beta": 0.086183, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 252 }, { "horizon": 9, "beta": 0.045888, "qValue": 0.321584, "n": 251 }, { "horizon": 10, "beta": 0.064998, "qValue": 0.305318, "n": 250 }, { "horizon": 11, "beta": 0.132922, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 249 }, { "horizon": 12, "beta": 0.221827, "qValue": 0.138754, "n": 248 } ] } }, "stageComparison": [ { "id": "raw", "label": "원시", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": -0.048193, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.595257, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 6, "correlation": 0.145386, "qValue": 0.147182, "n": 266, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.11779, "peakHorizon": 6, "peakBeta": 0.161354, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 8, "length": 8, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "domestic", "label": "국내 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.017276, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.888197, "n": 272, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.118862, "qValue": 0.464404, "n": 260, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.093166, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.12023, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 2, "length": 2, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "global", "label": "국내+세계 거시 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.032068, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.756687, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.142325, "qValue": 0.244078, "n": 249, "significant10pct": false }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": true, "direction": "positive", "significantHorizons": [ 1, 2 ], "positiveHorizons": [ 1, 2 ], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": 0.115377, "peakHorizon": 2, "peakBeta": 0.143874, "longestConsecutiveRun": { "start": 1, "end": 2, "length": 2, "direction": "positive" } }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 불명확하나 미래반응 회귀에서 관계 관찰" }, { "id": "full", "label": "거시+정책·정치 조정", "contemporaneous": { "lag": 0, "correlation": 0.021542, "pValue": null, "qValue": 0.911308, "n": 261, "significant10pct": false }, "bestStockLead": { "lag": 12, "correlation": 0.190394, "qValue": 0.063843, "n": 249, "significant10pct": true }, "projectionSummary": { "significant10pct": false, "direction": "none", "significantHorizons": [], "positiveHorizons": [], "negativeHorizons": [], "medianBeta": null, "peakHorizon": null, "peakBeta": null, "longestConsecutiveRun": null }, "judgement": "고정 시차상관은 관찰되지만 미래반응 회귀에서 재현되지 않음" } ] } ] }